In the first half of 2026, the polyester industry is experiencing a rare moment of glory. Following Hengyi Petrochemical's forecast of a net profit surge of over 23 times year-on-year, Eastern Shenghong announced on July 5 that it expects net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half to be between RMB 4.2 billion and 5.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 987% to 1194%. This means that in Q2 alone, net profit reached RMB 2.768 billion to 3.568 billion, a sequential increase of 93% to 149% and a year-on-year increase of 60 to 78 times. The polyester chain, which was crushed by 'involutionary losses' two years ago, now seems to have turned into a money-printing machine overnight. However, TexWorld editorial believes this is not a simple cyclical rebound but a dual effect of geopolitical conflict premium and domestic capacity structural optimization.
Geopolitical Premium: Refining Dividends in Oil Price Surge
At the beginning of 2026, the US-Iran conflict escalated, blocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices surged from $61/barrel at the start of the year, hitting $118/barrel in March, with the Q2 oil price center stabilizing around $99/barrel. In this round of geopolitical oil price volatility, Chinese refining companies, with their diversified crude oil import channels, suffered far less impact than countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on single sources, instead becoming beneficiaries of price fluctuations. Eastern Shenghong's integrated refining and chemical project operated smoothly with stable production and sales. The company has a PX capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, PTA capacity of 6.3 million tons/year, and total aromatics chain product capacity exceeding 10 million tons. Rising crude oil prices directly widened product spreads, fully unleashing the profit elasticity of the refining segment.
Anti-Involution: Capacity Cleanup Reshapes Supply-Demand
If the geopolitical premium is a short-term catalyst, then the capacity cleanup driven by 'anti-involution' is the long-term logic for industry profit improvement. Over the past two years, the core contradiction in the PX-PTA-polyester filament chain was price wars caused by overcapacity—PTA once lost RMB 200 per ton at its lowest. But entering 2026, the situation has fundamentally changed. No new PTA capacity has been added, while backward capacity at home and abroad has accelerated its exit, ceding market share to integrated leaders. Institutional research reports indicate that the current round of industry expansion is nearing its end, and the 'anti-involution' policy continues to advance, further improving the supply-demand balance. Head companies with advantages in scale, low cost, and high chemical yield have stronger certainty in benefiting from the recovery. This means that even if international oil prices retreat after geopolitical conflicts ease, the industry profit center raised by capacity cleanup will still support leading polyester companies in maintaining high profitability.
Industry Impact: Upstream-Downstream Transmission and Procurement Strategy Adjustment
The polyester profit surge has had clear transmission effects along the industrial chain. Rising upstream PX and PTA prices directly raised the cost base of polyester filament, while downstream weaving companies face pressure from rising raw material costs. However, it is worth noting that this round of price increases is not purely cost-driven but a value return after supply-demand improvement. For weaving mills, raw material procurement strategies need to shift from 'buy-as-needed' to 'moderate price locking'. In the past two years, due to PTA overcapacity, downstream companies habitually waited for lower prices; but under capacity cleanup, the price center has already shifted upward, and delayed procurement may face higher cost risks.