On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of Chinese polyester filament yarn sample enterprises plummeted to 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure not only hit a recent low but also means over 60% of capacity failed to translate into actual sales. After completing a round of concentrated replenishment, downstream users quickly entered a wait-and-see mode, leaving market transactions sluggish.
Market Signals Behind the Data
The sales-to-production ratio is a key indicator of supply-demand balance in the chemical fiber market. A ratio of 35.5% indicates that the shipment pace of polyester filament yarn enterprises is far below normal levels (typically 60%-80%). Specifically, the distribution among sample enterprises is highly uneven: the highest is only 70%, the lowest is 0%, and most are concentrated in the 20%-35% range. This uneven pattern reflects a significant divergence in procurement willingness among downstream weaving mills.
From the perspective of industrial chain transmission, a declining ratio usually means downstream inventory has reached a temporary saturation point. In early July, some weaving mills replenished stocks due to low raw material prices, but end-user orders did not recover simultaneously. Once the replenishment demand was exhausted, the market immediately fell into a stalemate of 'prices without transactions.'
Chain Reactions: From Raw Materials to Fabrics
Polyester filament yarn is a core raw material for chemical fiber fabrics. Its sales ratio directly impacts the operating rates and fabric prices in textile clusters like Shengze and Keqiao. The current low ratio may trigger the following chain reactions:
- Rising inventory pressure at chemical fiber plants, forcing price cuts or production maintenance.
- Increased wait-and-see sentiment among weaving mills, reducing procurement frequency and further suppressing raw material demand.
- Weaker expectations among fabric traders, potentially delaying new order placements.
Notably, July-August is the traditional off-season for textiles, with slower ordering from apparel brands. If the sales ratio remains below 40%, chemical fiber enterprises may face cash flow constraints and inventory devaluation risks.
Regional Responses: Shengze vs. Keqiao
Regionally, Shengze (Wujiang), a major production and sales hub for polyester filament yarn, shows generally low sales ratios, with some mills already adjusting operating rates. Meanwhile, the weaving cluster in Keqiao (Shaoxing) exhibits stronger wait-and-see behavior, preferring 'just-in-time' raw material purchases to avoid large stockpiling.
This regional divergence essentially reflects uneven profit distribution along the chain. Shengze's chemical fiber plants need to digest earlier high-cost raw material inventories, while Keqiao's weaving mills focus more on the sustainability of end fabric orders. In the current environment, downstream entities tend to shift risks upstream.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Current raw material prices are in a low-range fluctuation zone, but the low sales ratio suggests limited further downside. Consider phased purchasing instead of one-time large replenishment. - Monitor inventory days data of chemical fiber plants. If inventory exceeds 15 days, negotiate for price discounts. - Prioritize suppliers with sales ratios above 40%, as they have more stable cash flows and delivery reliability.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Overseas demand recovery is slower than expected, putting pressure on polyester filament yarn export quotes. Lock in exchange rate and raw material price fluctuation clauses in export contracts. - Monitor capacity releases in Southeast Asian textiles. If local demand picks up, it may divert China's chemical fiber export share. - Leverage current low raw material prices to sign long-term supply agreements with fabric mills, securing cost advantages.
Overall, the short-term plunge in polyester filament yarn's sales ratio is an inevitable process of market supply-demand rebalancing. For industry participants, rather than betting on a price rebound, focus on inventory management and cash flow safety.