On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio for polyester filament yarn sample enterprises fell to 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure sits below the industry's recognized 40% breakeven line, meaning that for every 100 tons of PFY produced that day, less than 36 tons were absorbed by the market. More notably, only about 20% of sample enterprises achieved a daily sales ratio above 50%, with most factories reporting ratios between 20% and 35%, and a few even recording zero transactions.
The Ebb After Concentrated Stockpiling
This data reflects that downstream weaving and texturing mills had already completed phased replenishment during the previous price trough. In early July, PFY prices hit a year-to-date low, attracting mills with urgent needs and traders to buy heavily. However, the buying spree lasted only a few days before demand quickly dried up. The distribution of sales ratios shows only one enterprise reached 70%, while the rest stayed below 60%, indicating that the replenishment was highly concentrated and short-lived—not a sign of broad demand recovery.
Such "pulse-type" procurement is not new in the chemical fiber market. When raw material prices fall to a perceived bargain level, downstream mills release pent-up inventory demand. But once prices stabilize or rebound, buyers immediately shift to a wait-and-see stance. The current 35.5% ratio is a textbook example of this cycle. For upstream polyester plants, it means inventory pressure is building, and price promotions to stimulate off-take are likely within the next week.
Order Lull and Price Expectations
Another key factor behind the sales slump is the seasonal lull in downstream orders. Currently in the traditional textile off-season, the domestic market lacks large orders, while export orders are still in the evaluation phase for autumn preparation. Most weaving mills have only 10 to 15 days of orders on hand, so raw material procurement naturally follows a "buy-as-needed" approach, with little incentive to build inventory.
PFY prices have already fallen to year-to-date lows in early July, but downstream players believe there is still room for further decline. On the cost side, upstream PTA and MEG prices are volatile due to crude oil fluctuations, offering weak support. On the supply side, polyester plant operating rates remain above 90%, with no proactive output cuts. In this "strong supply, weak demand" environment, PFY prices are likely to remain low and volatile, potentially dipping further to find a new equilibrium.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Avoid blindly stockpiling at current levels. During low sales ratios, polyester plants may offer short-term discounts to clear inventory, but the price floor is not yet confirmed. Keep procurement cycles to 7-10 days, locking in small batches at low prices. - Monitor polyester plant inventory days and maintenance schedules. If concentrated maintenance occurs within the next two weeks, prices may stabilize temporarily, allowing for moderate stock increases. - Use futures or forward pricing tools to hedge price risks. For buyers with stable export orders, consider locking in some raw material costs at low futures levels.
For Export Enterprises - Export orders are expected to pick up in mid-to-late August. Establish "floating price plus volume guarantee" agreements with upstream suppliers in advance to avoid margin compression from raw material price hikes after order confirmation. - Monitor RMB exchange rates and ocean freight changes. Current low PFY prices benefit export cost control, but exchange rate fluctuations could offset gains. Build flexibility into quotations. - In quotations for European and American clients, link PFY raw material prices to finished product pricing with price adjustment clauses to handle sudden raw material volatility.
A single-day drop in the sales ratio should not be over-interpreted, but it reveals a deeper truth: inventory management in the chemical fiber chain is shifting from "stockpile for speculation" to "fast-in, fast-out." Both upstream plants and downstream buyers must adapt to shorter, faster procurement rhythms. The PFY market will likely enter a window of "price bottoming and thin trading" over the next month, with real change only coming after export orders pick up in August.