The polyester filament yarn market is experiencing a clear demand cooling. On July 10, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure has fallen below the industry's recognized breakeven line (usually 50%-60%), meaning that most enterprises failed to sell the day's production, and inventories are accumulating rapidly.
What the Sales Data Reveals
Looking at the 22 sets of disclosed enterprise data, the divergence is stark: the highest value was only 70%, while the lowest was 0%, indicating zero transactions for the day. Most enterprises fell in the 20%-35% range, including values like 60%, 20%, 30%, 35%, 30%, 20%, 30%, 25%, 25%, 20%, 30%, 35%, 30%, 20%, 30%, 20%, 20%, 30%, and 40%. This distribution suggests that even within the same market, customer stickiness and sales strategies vary greatly, but overall, downstream purchasing willingness has shrunk dramatically.
The direct cause of this phenomenon is that downstream users, after a period of concentrated replenishment, have generally chosen to step back and wait. Concentrated replenishment typically occurs when prices are low or expected to rise. Once stockpiling is complete, if end-user demand does not follow synchronously, a temporary 'vacuum' period forms. This is the current state: weaving mills already have some raw material inventory, and terminal apparel orders have not shown explosive growth, naturally slowing the procurement pace.
Supply Chain Pressure: From Downstream to Upstream
Polyester filament yarn is a core intermediate material in the textile supply chain. Its sales-to-production ratio directly reflects the operating willingness and order situation of downstream weaving mills. A 35.5% ratio means that weaving mills are not only refraining from additional purchases but are also digesting existing inventory. For upstream polyester plants, this is a clear signal of sluggish sales.
If this low ratio persists for several days, polyester plants will face a dilemma: either cut prices to stimulate shipments, risking a market panic sell-off, or maintain prices and passively accumulate inventory, leading to rapidly rising capital and storage costs. Historically, when the ratio stays below 40% for over a week, the industry usually initiates a round of proactive price cuts to destock, with reductions ranging from 100 to 300 yuan per ton.
For downstream weaving and dyeing enterprises, the current low-price window could present an opportunity. If terminal orders recover within the next two weeks, the current low raw material prices will offer significant cost advantages. However, the key lies in the pace of demand recovery in foreign trade markets—procurement of textiles and apparel from Europe and America has not shown a clear rebound, and the domestic market lacks strong stimulus.
Reactions from Regional Industrial Clusters
In major polyester filament yarn producing areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, related enterprises have begun adjusting operating loads. According to publicly available industry data, some polyester plants plan maintenance shutdowns of 3-5 days in mid-July to reduce output and alleviate inventory pressure. This 'maintenance instead of shutdown' approach is essentially a passive supply-side adjustment.
Simultaneously, downstream weaving clusters such as Nantong and Shaoxing have seen slight declines in operating rates. The water-jet loom operating rate in Nantong's home textile cluster has dropped from 75% at the end of June to around 70%, while the circular knitting machine rate in Shaoxing remains around 60%. These data corroborate each other, indicating that the entire chain, from raw materials to end products, is slowing down.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Consider adopting a wait-and-see approach for now, avoiding chasing price increases. If polyester yarn prices correct by more than 200 yuan per ton, consider phased purchasing to lock in low costs. - Monitor polyester plant maintenance schedules. Supply contraction during maintenance may provide short-term price support, but the overall trend depends on demand recovery. - Negotiate flexible settlement terms with suppliers, such as extended payment periods or post-pricing models, to reduce capital occupation risk.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Use short-term price locking strategies for export quotations to avoid profit erosion from raw material price fluctuations. - Monitor Southeast Asian market dynamics: if domestic polyester yarn prices continue to fall, it may create a price advantage over Southeast Asian competitors, benefiting grey fabric and fabric exports. - Leverage the current low raw material prices to negotiate long-term order pricing benchmarks with overseas clients, securing more favorable contract terms.
Overall, the July 10 sales data is a clear industry cooling signal. The next two weeks' terminal order situation will determine whether this adjustment is a temporary fluctuation or a trend shift. The Textile Circle editorial team will continue tracking dynamic changes across the supply chain.