The polyester filament yarn market experienced a notable cooldown on July 10. Industry data shows that the average sales-to-production ratio among sample enterprises was only 35.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, less than 36 tons were purchased by downstream customers, with the remainder adding to inventory.
Why the Sales Ratio Dropped Sharply
Looking at individual enterprise data, the sales-to-production ratio on that day ranged from 0% to 70%, with more than half of the companies falling below 30%, and some even recording zero sales. This highly dispersed and generally sluggish performance is not due to a single factor.
The core reason is that downstream users had just completed a round of concentrated replenishment, leaving their raw material inventories relatively adequate in the short term. After the replenishment, weaving companies generally shifted to a wait-and-see mode, significantly reducing their purchasing willingness. This is a classic signal of the transition from "restocking" to "de-stocking."
At the same time, terminal demand for textiles and apparel has shown no clear improvement. The domestic consumer market has entered a traditional off-season, while foreign trade orders have seen limited increases due to slow inventory digestion overseas. Although upstream polyester plants have attempted to stimulate sales through promotions or price concessions, these measures have had limited effect during a demand vacuum.
Inventory Pressure Transmits Upstream
The low sales ratio directly leads to rising finished product inventories at polyester filament yarn manufacturers. For polyester plants, the capital costs tied up in inventory are increasing. If inventory pressure continues to accumulate, plants may be forced to take production cuts or schedule maintenance to balance supply and demand.
This pressure is now transmitting upstream in the supply chain. Demand expectations for raw materials such as PTA and MEG are weakening, and price support is eroding. In fact, polyester raw material prices have recently shown signs of loosening, with some traders already reducing positions to hedge risks.
For downstream weaving companies, the current low raw material price window may offer short-term cost benefits, but they must be cautious about the terminal market's actual absorption capacity. If weaving companies themselves lack sufficient orders, restocking at low prices could instead exacerbate their own inventory burdens.
Dual Challenges from Exports and Domestic Sales
On the export front, overseas demand for polyester filament yarn and downstream textile products remains uncertain. Buyers in major export markets such as Southeast Asia and the EU are primarily placing small, urgent orders, with large and long-term orders scarce. Exchange rate fluctuations and changes in shipping costs also increase the risk of order fulfillment for foreign trade companies.
On the domestic front, the peak season for autumn/winter fabric preparation has not yet fully begun, and the market is in a lull period. End-brand companies in home textiles and apparel are generally slowing their ordering pace, putting pressure on capacity utilization at intermediate weaving and dyeing plants.