On July 8, the polyester filament market recorded a striking contrast: the average sales-to-output ratio among sample enterprises surged to 103.6%, up 60.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. Yet the data across individual firms ranged from 10% to 300%, revealing an extreme divergence that a simple average cannot capture. This structural anomaly indicates that downstream buyers have not formed a unified bullish outlook; instead, they are reacting divergently under the pressure of rising costs.
Cost Shock Is the Sole Trigger
The direct cause of this sales pulse is clear: crude oil and polyester feedstock prices rose sharply on that day, quickly transmitting to the polyester filament segment. For polyester plants long haunted by low sales ratios and high inventories, any fluctuation in costs is magnified. The day before, the average sales ratio was only about 42.9%, typical of a sluggish off-season. The jump on July 8 was essentially a 'cost-panic restocking' event—some downstream weaving mills, fearing further price hikes, rushed to lock in volumes.
However, it is notable that only a minority of firms achieved ratios above 100%; many remained in the 50%-80% range, with a few as low as 10%. This suggests that market sentiment has not turned broadly optimistic but is instead characterized by 'point-like outbreaks.' Firms reporting 200% or 300% ratios likely had extremely low inventories or urgent client orders, while most mills are still waiting.
The Logic Behind Impulse Buying
This pattern of sudden surges in polyester filament sales is not coincidental. Since the second half of 2024, downstream weaving mills have maintained a 'just-in-time' inventory strategy with procurement cycles shortened to 3-5 days. Whenever feedstock prices rise more than 2% in a single day, a concentrated buying wave is triggered, which typically fades within 1-2 days. The July 8 data is a repeat of this pattern.
From a regional perspective, loom utilization rates in major polyester-consuming areas like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan remain at a low 65%-70%, with no substantial recovery in end-use garment orders. Therefore, this sales surge is more likely a 'false boom'—it does not signal demand recovery but rather an inventory rebalancing driven by cost volatility. Once crude oil prices retreat or feedstock price gains slow, the sales ratio will likely fall back below 50%.
Implications for the Supply Chain
- **For polyester plants**: Short-term inventory pressure has eased, but the divergent data warns against across-the-board price hikes. Inventory destocking is concentrated in a few varieties and specifications; most standard specifications still face significant selling pressure. Plants should use this window to accelerate the clearance of high-inventory items rather than raising prices broadly.
- **For weaving mills**: Chasing price increases at this point offers an unfavorable risk-reward profile. If feedstock prices correct in the next 1-2 weeks, inventory bought at high prices will face immediate impairment risks. It is advisable to extend procurement cycles to 7-10 days and build positions in batches to avoid concentrated locking on a single day.
- **For traders**: This sales pulse offers a brief arbitrage window, but caution is needed regarding the 'inflated' nature of the data—some firms may have used price concessions to boost volumes, with actual transaction prices not rising correspondingly. Traders should prioritize monitoring PTA and MEG futures trends over a single sales ratio.