On July 10, the domestic polyester filament yarn market suddenly cooled down. The average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 35.5%, a sharp drop of 4.9 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only about 35 tons were sold, significantly increasing the risk of inventory backlog.
Restocking Tide Recedes: A Calm Period After Demand Overdraft
Looking at the specific sales data of sample enterprises, the distribution is extremely scattered: the lowest is zero, the highest is 70%, but the vast majority are concentrated in the 20%-35% range. This structure indicates that the entire industry is not experiencing a synchronized downturn; rather, downstream users, after a previous round of concentrated replenishment, quickly shifted to a 'watching without buying' wait-and-see mode.
The Textile Circle editorial team notes that this 'pulse-type' procurement behavior has become increasingly common in recent years. When raw material prices are low or show short-term upward expectations, weaving companies will place orders intensively. Once replenishment is complete, they immediately exit. The sharp drop in the sales-to-production ratio on July 10 is a typical manifestation of this behavior pattern.
Industry Transmission: From Polyester Filament to Polyester, Then to Weaving
The sharp decline in the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn first impacts the inventory management of polyester plants. According to industry rules, a sales-to-production ratio below 50% means that plant inventories begin to accumulate passively. If this state persists for more than a week, polyester plants will likely balance supply and demand through price cuts or production reductions.
For the upstream PTA and MEG markets, sluggish polyester filament sales will weaken raw material procurement intentions, thereby suppressing prices. For downstream weaving companies, the current wait-and-see attitude is not without cost – if raw material prices fall due to polyester plant destocking, orders placed at high prices in the previous round may face losses; if prices stabilize and rebound, companies that miss this procurement window may be forced to chase prices.
Regional Industrial Belt Reaction: Jiangsu-Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate Becomes Key Variable
Changes in the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn are often highly correlated with the operating rate of weaving clusters in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions. Mid-July is typically a traditional off-season, and with factors such as high temperatures and power rationing, some weaving companies have already planned to reduce loads. If the operating rate further declines, demand for polyester filament will continue to be under pressure.
From public data, the operating rate of water-jet looms in places like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan is generally between 60% and 70%, which is a slight decline compared to the first quarter. If the polyester filament sales-to-production ratio continues to hover below 40%, polyester plants are likely to launch a new round of promotions before the end of the month, at which point weaving companies may face a replenishment window.