On July 8, the polyester filament yarn market witnessed a startling data point: the average sales-to-production ratio among sample enterprises surged from 42.9% the previous trading day to 103.6%, a jump of 60.7 percentage points. The simultaneous rise in crude oil and polyester raw material prices was seen as the direct catalyst igniting downstream buying sentiment.
The Divergent Picture Behind Sales Data
On the surface, a ratio above 100% indicates that shipments exceeded production for the day, leading to a temporary reduction in inventory. However, a closer look at individual company data reveals a fragmented market. Within the sample, the highest ratio reached 300%, while the lowest was only 10%. Over 40% of the sample enterprises recorded ratios below 80%, meaning a significant portion failed to achieve sales-production balance.
This extreme divergence suggests the buying spree was highly selective—capital and attention concentrated on a few companies with price advantages or strong distribution channels, while most did not share in the order windfall. For the industry, this looks more like a localized inventory transfer than a broad-based demand recovery.
Cost-Driven Sentiment Spike
The core driver behind this sales surge came from the cost side. International crude oil prices strengthened continuously in early July, directly pushing up quotes for PTA and MEG, the key polyester raw materials. As an intermediate product, polyester filament yarn pricing is highly dependent on upstream cost pass-through. Fearing they might miss the 'buy on rising prices' window, downstream weaving mills were forced into concentrated stockpiling.
However, such cost-driven procurement behavior often lacks sustainability. Once crude oil prices correct, downstream wait-and-see sentiment quickly returns. Historically, from 2024 to 2025, the market experienced several similar 'one-day wonders'—sales ratios spiked and then rapidly fell, with inventory pressure rebuilding within weeks.
Transmission Chain and Real Demand Test
The current transmission chain in the textile industry is not smooth. Whether upstream chemical fiber raw material price volatility can effectively pass through to end-use apparel and home textile consumption is key to judging this rally's quality. Looking at downstream weaving operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, the comprehensive utilization rate for water-jet and air-jet looms remains at 60-70%, with no significant improvement. End-user orders are dominated by short-run, small-lot orders, lacking large-scale long-term contracts. This indicates weaving mills themselves are cautiously managing raw material inventories.
On the export front, pressure persists. Apparel retail growth in major European and American markets is slowing, and the diversion effect of Southeast Asian textile capacity on domestic orders continues. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for the domestic polyester filament yarn market to stage an independent rally detached from final consumption.