On July 13, the average sales-to-production ratio of sampled polyester filament enterprises reached 54.0%, a significant increase of 18.5 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure may appear to inject a dose of optimism into the market, but a deeper look reveals an uneven recovery. Among the 22 enterprises that disclosed specific data, only five exceeded 100%, with the highest at 150%, while the remaining 17 were at 45% or below, with the lowest at just 15%. This pattern of a few leading enterprises surging while the majority lag behind highlights a deep structural divergence in the current chemical fiber market.
Supply-Demand Reality Behind the Sales Data
The sales-to-production ratio is a core metric measuring the match between daily sales and output for chemical fiber companies. A 54% average means that more than 40% of the day's production was not converted into effective sales. Although the improvement from the previous day is notable, the absolute value remains low. Historical data shows that when the sales-to-production ratio consistently falls below 60%, it typically signals cautious procurement by downstream weaving mills and a buildup of inventory pressure at the chemical fiber plants.
Notably, discounts in low-end product negotiations are narrowing. This is closely linked to ongoing geopolitical risks, which have increased volatility in upstream raw material prices. Chemical fiber producers face a trade-off between protecting margins and securing orders. Some are tightening discount policies, effectively using pricing to screen customers: price-sensitive low-end orders are naturally filtered out, while buyers with genuine restocking needs must accept higher transaction prices.
Transmission to Industrial Belts: From Keqiao to Shengze
Polyester filament is the core raw material for weaving, and its sales data directly affects operational rates and inventory cycles in textile clusters such as Keqiao (Shaoxing), Shengze (Suzhou), and Nantong. When the sales-to-production ratio of chemical fiber plants remains weak, it implies that downstream weaving mills are extending their raw material procurement cycles, adopting a just-in-time inventory strategy. This mindset, once entrenched, creates a negative feedback loop: mills reduce stocking → chemical fiber plants see rising inventories → forced price cuts → profit margins squeezed → anticipation of production cuts.
Currently, some weaving mills in Keqiao and Shengze have already reduced operating rates, and order cycles for major fabric types have shortened to 5–7 days. This aligns closely with the polyester filament data, indicating that end-brand apparel orders have not accelerated significantly, and returning export orders remain short-term and urgent.
Dual Pressure from Costs and Geopolitics
The cost side of polyester filament is heavily influenced by PTA (purified terephthalic acid) and MEG (monoethylene glycol) prices, which in turn are highly correlated with crude oil and geopolitical tensions. Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have increased oil price volatility, directly raising the procurement cost of chemical fiber raw materials. However, downstream users have limited tolerance for price hikes, preventing a smooth pass-through of costs to the end market.
This scenario of upstream price increases, midstream pressure, and downstream wait-and-see has been especially evident in the July chemical fiber market. Producers are caught between maintaining capacity utilization and protecting margins. Some small and medium-sized polyester plants have already begun voluntary production cuts to relieve inventory and cash flow pressures.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Monitor the combined movement of sales-to-production ratios and inventory levels: if the ratio stays below 50% for three consecutive days, consider postponing large purchases and waiting for month-end destocking promotions. - Prioritize suppliers with a stable sales-to-production ratio above 80%, as they typically have healthier cash flows and stricter quality control, reducing the risk of quality issues during rush orders. - Be cautious with products where low-end discounts are narrowing; avoid the temptation of low prices that may lead to supply disruptions or quality instability.
For Export Companies - Include a raw material price fluctuation adjustment clause in fabric export contracts, using the monthly average polyester filament price as a benchmark to avoid cost inversion. - Closely monitor the transmission path from Middle East geopolitical events to crude oil and PTA prices, and lock in forward raw material orders 1–2 weeks in advance to hedge against sudden price spikes. - Use the current window when chemical fiber plants are eager to sell to sign quarterly framework agreements with suppliers, securing better tiered pricing and payment terms.
Every fluctuation in the chemical fiber market is a real reflection of the supply-demand dynamics in the textile industry chain. The July 13 data is neither a signal of recovery nor a warning of recession, but a mirror showing the true state of the industry under the triple pressures of high costs, weak demand, and geopolitical risks. For practitioners, rather than chasing daily data fluctuations, it is more valuable to build longer-term trend judgment capabilities and find their own certainty in a diverging market.