The second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing the polyester supply chain to reassess risks. Unlike the near-runaway price surge after the Lunar New Year, this round of polyester filament hikes is notably milder—daily increases typically range from 50 to 100 yuan per ton, far below the previous spikes of 500 to 1,500 yuan. Weaving mill owners are reacting with relative calm, and there is no sign of panic buying. This contrast reflects a shift in industry perception: the energy shock is no longer a short-term event but a long-term structural variable.
Oil Supply Gap Remains Wide
During the first blockade, several Asian economies suffered acute oil shortages: Japan ran out of naphtha, forcing products into monochrome packaging; some Southeast Asian countries cut work hours and rationed fuel at gas stations. These were not isolated incidents but symptoms of a fragile global energy supply chain.
After the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, the Strait briefly reopened. However, according to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, only about 28 ships passed daily between June 18 and July 5, compared to 130-138 before the conflict—roughly 20% of normal capacity. In the first five days after the deal, some 18 million barrels of crude left Iranian ports. Iran claimed exports of 40 million barrels, at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The U.S. said it had escorted over 800 vessels carrying about 400 million barrels since early May. Yet the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remained stranded in the Persian Gulf.
In short, Asian nations managed to replenish only a fraction of their depleted crude inventories during the brief window. The second blockade means energy supply will tighten further.
Short-Term Export Gains, Long-Term Risks
For China's textile industry, the energy crisis has brought short-term order inflows. Many Southeast Asian countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil have seen production severely disrupted, pushing buyers seeking reliable delivery and quality to shift orders to China.
Customs data released on July 14 confirms this: June textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports alone grew 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; apparel exports rose 3.2% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, with textile exports at $73 billion, up 3.5%.
Yet the long-term picture is more concerning. A prolonged Strait blockade could impact China's textile trade through two channels:
- First, oil is the lifeblood of most industrial economies. Sustained shortages would disrupt production in Southeast Asia and beyond, weakening end-consumer demand.
- Second, rising oil prices could stoke U.S. inflation, forcing the Federal Reserve to resume rate hikes, tightening global liquidity and suppressing trade finance and consumer confidence.
China has reduced its oil import dependence by expanding new energy and coal-to-chemicals capacity. But most countries lack this capability. If the global economy enters a systemic downturn due to energy shocks, China's export-dependent textile sector will not be immune.