Crude oil prices are climbing again, driving up polyester raw material costs, with polyester filament yarn rising 50 to 100 yuan per ton. Compared to the post-Spring Festival surge where daily increases hit 1,500 yuan, this round is smaller in magnitude and slower in pace. Weaving mill owners remain calm, with no panic buying.
The real risk lies not in domestic raw material fluctuations but in the second closure of the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, only an average of 28 vessels passed through daily, down nearly 80% from the pre-conflict average of 130-138 vessels.
Supply Chain Gap: Asian Countries' Restocking Falls Short
During the brief window after the first closure eased, Asian countries attempted to replenish crude oil inventories. Data show that within five days of the agreement, approximately 18 million barrels of crude oil were shipped from Iranian ports, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The U.S. reported escorting over 800 commercial vessels since early May, transporting about 400 million barrels.
However, these volumes are far from filling the gap left by the earlier blockade. The International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. This means Asian countries—especially those in Southeast Asia heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude—still face fragile energy supplies, with production disruptions likely to recur.
Industrial Transmission: Short-Term Gains vs. Long-Term Risks
For China's textile industry, this energy crisis brings short-term benefits. Southeast Asian countries' production disruptions due to energy shortages have diverted orders seeking stable delivery and quality to China. China Customs data from July 14 confirms this: textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year in June and 14.3% month-on-month, with textile exports up 12.2% and apparel up 3.2%. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%.
But long-term risks loom. Continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will fuel global inflation, especially through crude oil's role as a basic industrial input. If the U.S. raises interest rates further due to oil price spikes, a global liquidity crisis could intensify. While China has reduced crude import dependence through new energy and coal chemicals, most countries lack this capacity. Textile foreign trade, a key pillar of China's industry, cannot remain insulated from global economic turmoil.