The polyester industry's first-half performance can only be described as a 'money-printing machine.' Six major listed polyester companies released semi-annual earnings forecasts, with net profit growth generally in the triple digits. Hengyi Petrochemical led the pack with an expected year-on-year increase of 2,326.31% to 2,546.88%, with net profit between 5.5 billion and 6 billion yuan. Shenghong followed closely, with net profit growth of 987.39% to 1,194.51%, expecting profits of 4.2 billion to 5 billion yuan. Rongsheng Petrochemical expects net profit of 5 billion to 5.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 730%. Tongkun Group expects net profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, up over 273%. Hengli Petrochemical expects net profit of about 7.2 billion yuan, up about 136%. Xinfengming expects net profit of 1.38 billion to 1.5 billion yuan, up nearly 95% to 111%.
Geopolitical Conflict and Anti-Internal Competition: The Dual Engines of Profit
The core logic behind this profit explosion can be broken down into two dimensions. First, the geopolitical dividend. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict in early 2026 disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent crude oil from $61 per barrel at the start of the year to $118 per barrel in March, with the second-quarter oil price center stabilizing around $99 per barrel. Domestic refining and chemical companies, benefiting from diversified crude oil import channels, were far less affected by the blockade than countries like Japan and South Korea, which rely on single-source procurement, making them beneficiaries of the oil price surge. Second, the effectiveness of the industry's anti-internal competition policy. In the past two years, the PTA and polyester filament yarn industries were mired in overcapacity, with PTA at one point losing 200 yuan per ton. By the end of 2025, leading chemical fiber companies reached a consensus on voluntary production cuts, actively reducing operating rates for mainstream products like POY and FDY. Coupled with tightened approval for new capacity under dual-carbon policy constraints, supply-side contractions were orderly, and processing spreads have clearly recovered.
Capacity Structure and Industrial Chain Advantage: A Concentrated Payout
From the companies' announcements, the integrated whole-industry-chain advantage is the key to profit realization. Hengli Petrochemical has built core capacity including a 20 million ton/year refining and chemical integration, 6 million ton/year coal chemical, and 16.6 million ton/year PTA, with all chain units operating at high loads. Shenghong has 2.8 million tons/year of PX capacity and 6.3 million tons/year of PTA, with total aromatic chain product capacity exceeding 10 million tons. Rongsheng Petrochemical relies on its globally large-scale refining and chemical integration unit to continuously optimize operational efficiency. For Tongkun Group, while the PTA and polyester filament yarn core business spreads have recovered, its investment in Zhejiang Petrochemical has significantly improved profitability, becoming an important source of investment income. CITIC Securities analysis points out that the long-term shortage of refined oil supply in Southeast Asia and the significant widening of spreads in the first quarter of 2026 further amplified the refining profitability of Hengyi's Brunei project.
Can the Boom Last? New Variables Are Taking Shape
At present, the industry's anti-internal competition process has not been interrupted, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has once again become tense. The irreversible rise in crude oil prices provides sustained price support for polyester giants. However, whether high profits can be maintained long-term depends on two variables: first, the sustainability of the geopolitical conflict and the stability of the oil price center; second, the ability to transmit profits to downstream sectors like weaving and dyeing. If crude oil prices rise too quickly without a corresponding increase in end-user demand, the industry chain's profit distribution could face structural imbalances. According to institutional research reports, this round of industry expansion is nearing its end, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to improve further, but leading companies should be wary of the risk of a phased correction caused by downstream inventory accumulation.