The post-Lunar New Year surge, which saw polyester yarn prices spike 1,500 yuan per ton in a single day, now appears as an extreme stress test. The current price hikes triggered by the second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are far milder—rising 50 to 100 yuan daily—and weaving mill owners are notably calmer. Yet beneath the surface, the real risk lies not in raw material prices themselves, but in how the fragility of global energy supply chains transmits through foreign demand to China's textile industry.
Energy Deficit: A Gap That Cannot Be Filled
The core fact is that the 'window period' after the first blockade failed to allow Asian countries to replenish inventories adequately. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, an average of 28 ships passed through the strait daily from June 18 to July 5, compared to a pre-conflict norm of 130 to 138. In the five days after the agreement, about 18 million barrels of crude oil were shipped from Iranian ports; Iran claimed exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The U.S. reported escorting over 800 vessels carrying 400 million barrels since early May. Yet the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and some 6,000 seafarers remained stranded in the Persian Gulf.
This means the inventories depleted during the first blockade have not been replenished, and the new blockade will directly hit an already tight supply. For China's textile industry, crude oil is the upstream raw material for polyester filament yarn (polyester yarn), and its price fluctuations directly transmit to polyester chips, yarn, and grey fabric. However, the slower pace of current price hikes suggests the market has partially digested the panic over supply disruption, and domestic coal-chemical and new energy alternatives provide a buffer.
Short-Term Dividend: Can Order Reshoring Last?
The energy crisis in the first half of the year has already brought unexpected benefits to China's textile sector. Many Southeast Asian countries, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy, saw production disrupted, leading some overseas orders seeking stable delivery to shift to China. Data from the General Administration of Customs on July 14 shows that textile and apparel exports in June grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports alone rose 12.2%, while apparel exports increased 3.2%. In the first half of the year, total textile and apparel exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year.
This data confirms the reshoring trend but reveals structural divergence: textile (fabric, yarn) export growth (+3.5%) significantly outpaced apparel (-0.7%), indicating stronger demand for intermediate goods than finished products. The logic is that Southeast Asian garment factories, restricted by oil shortages, increased purchases of Chinese fabrics to maintain production. If the blockade persists, this substitution effect may expand further.
Long-Term Concern: The 'Stagflation' Trap for the Global Economy
Short-term gains mask long-term risks. A prolonged Strait of Hormuz blockade will push up global oil prices, exacerbating inflation. If the U.S. responds with interest rate hikes, global liquidity will tighten, suppressing consumer and investment demand. China's textile industry is heavily export-dependent; once major overseas markets (the U.S., EU, Southeast Asia) face economic downturns, the impact of order contraction will far exceed that of raw material price hikes.
A key variable is that China has reduced direct dependence on crude oil through coal-chemical routes (e.g., MTO for ethylene glycol) and new energy (solar, wind), but this cannot offset a collapse in overseas demand. As industry public data shows, apparel exports in the first half of the year fell 0.7%, already signaling weakness in end-consumer demand.