Crude oil has surged past $86, and polyester filament yarn has risen for consecutive days, putting the textile industry under renewed cost pressure. However, unlike the early-year spike that saw prices jump 3,000 yuan in three days, the current industrial environment has fundamentally changed, and market reactions may be starkly different.
Crude Oil Shock and Polyester Linkage
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary driver of this price volatility. U.S. forces launched multiple airstrikes against Iran, while Iran announced a temporary closure of the strait and attacked U.S. military bases. Brent crude surged nearly 10% on the 13th, the largest single-day gain since June, and despite the U.S. later withdrawing its fee plan, geopolitical tensions remain high.
Polyester filament yarn has risen continuously since the 8th, reversing a previous downtrend. The transmission mechanism in the polyester chain is clear: crude oil prices push up PX costs, which in turn raise PTA and MEG, eventually affecting polyester filament yarn. But whether this rally can be sustained depends on downstream demand absorption.
Off-Season Demand and Inventory Pressure
Unlike the peak season of March-April, the textile industry is currently in a traditional off-season. Loom operating rates are low, and fabric mills have weak incentives to purchase raw materials. Gray fabric inventory averages 17 days, down from 24 days at the start of the year, indicating lower downstream destocking pressure.
However, polyester filament yarn inventories are significantly higher than early this year: POY at 26.4 days (vs. 18.7 days), FDY at 32.5 days (vs. 25 days), and DTY at 37.3 days (vs. 27.6 days). High inventories mean polyester plants have weaker bargaining power, and if crude oil retreats, polyester yarn prices could quickly soften.
Shift in Market Sentiment
After half a year of high raw material prices, the textile industry's perception of price hikes has been fundamentally reshaped. Early this year, many companies hoarded inventory, expecting prices to rise further; now, the industry has generally shifted to a wait-and-see approach. The reason is that raw material price increases are sharp and decisive, but the transmission to gray fabric and finished fabrics is extremely difficult, requiring repeated negotiations with downstream customers, and old inventory is hard to reprice.
This sentiment shift means that even if crude oil continues to rise, downstream purchasing will be more cautious, avoiding the panic buying seen earlier this year. Polarization will intensify: companies with orders may be forced to accept high prices, while those without orders may choose to cut production and wait.
Macro Variables and Black Swan Risks
From a global perspective, energy demand dynamics are changing. Many countries' crude oil inventories have been largely depleted, and this round of replenishment has been limited, reducing their resilience. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, it could trigger chain reactions: on one hand, production disruptions in some countries may accelerate order shifts to China; on the other, overseas demand may be further suppressed, potentially exacerbating inflation and triggering financial risks.
For textile foreign trade enterprises, two directions require attention: first, rising raw material costs squeezing profit margins; second, overseas clients may reduce orders due to economic pressure. The probability of black swan events is rising, and companies need to prepare contingency plans.