On July 15, the average production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises plummeted to 42.3%, down 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This decline is not accidental but a concentrated manifestation of the downstream textile enterprises' shift from 'stockpiling in anticipation of price hikes' to 'demand-based procurement'.
Industrial Signals of the Production-Sales Ratio Plunge
The 42.3% ratio means that more than half of the capacity among sample enterprises failed to convert into actual sales. Looking at specific data, among over 30 sample companies, only one achieved a ratio of 160%, while the majority clustered between 20% and 40%, with even one company reporting zero sales on that day. This extreme divergence indicates that the buyer's market has gained absolute dominance, and sellers' bargaining power has significantly weakened.
As a core intermediate product in the textile chemical fiber chain, the production-sales ratio of polyester filament yarn directly reflects the willingness of downstream weaving enterprises to start production and their restocking pace. Mid-July falls in the traditional off-season, with terminal apparel brand orders yet to pick up. Weaving enterprises generally face high inventory and low profit margins. A sharp drop in the production-sales ratio at this time implies that downstream companies are not only refraining from replenishing inventory but are accelerating destocking.
Logic Shift from 'Stockpiling' to 'Demand-Based'
In the past two years, chemical fiber raw material prices have experienced frequent fluctuations due to crude oil volatility and supply-side disruptions. To hedge against price increases, downstream enterprises generally adopted a strategy of 'locking in orders early and stockpiling moderately'. However, entering the second quarter of 2026, this logic is reversing.
Three reasons underpin this shift: First, the crude oil price center has moved downward, weakening the cost support for polyester raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol, leading to bearish expectations for chemical fiber prices. Second, terminal consumption growth has slowed, with garment export orders showing a trend of 'short orders, small orders, urgent orders', making it difficult for weaving enterprises to bear large raw material capital occupation. Third, the capacity of some leading enterprises continues to be released, making the supply-side loose pattern unlikely to change in the short term.
When prices are no longer 'only rising', downstream procurement naturally shifts from 'fear of missing out' to 'wait and see'. The 42.3% ratio is a quantitative reflection of this psychological change.
Chain Effects on Industrial Clusters and Foreign Trade
This data has significant implications for chemical fiber industrial clusters such as Keqiao, Shengze, and Nantong. Keqiao, as the world's largest textile distribution center, has a direct demand for polyester filament yarn in its grey fabric market. A persistently low production-sales ratio suggests that the operating rate of weaving enterprises in Keqiao may further decrease in the next 1-2 weeks, impacting the start-up pace of local dyeing and finishing processes.
Shengze is renowned for high-density chemical fiber fabrics, with a high proportion of foreign trade orders. If raw material price expectations weaken, foreign trade enterprises may face dual pressure: profit erosion on existing orders and passive pricing in new order negotiations. The Nantong home textile industrial cluster is also affected, as polyester filament yarn accounts for a significant share in home textile fabrics, and raw material cost fluctuations directly transmit to final pricing.
From a foreign trade perspective, the growth rate of China's chemical fiber and textile exports has shown signs of slowing in the first half of 2026. Overseas buyers are becoming more price-sensitive, and if domestic suppliers cannot offer competitive quotes, orders may shift to Southeast Asia. The sharp drop in the production-sales ratio further reinforces this 'buyer's market' pattern, requiring foreign trade companies to manage inventory cycles more cautiously when quoting.
Practical Recommendations
For Purchasers - The current market is at a critical price negotiation stage. It is recommended to shorten the procurement cycle for regular raw materials to 7-10 days, avoiding long-term locked-in prices, and use the spot market for flexible position adjustments. - Closely monitor changes in the production-sales ratio of sample enterprises. If it remains below 50% for three consecutive days, consider moderate price negotiation, but be wary of short-term supply contraction due to supplier production cuts. - Sign 'volume guarantee, no price guarantee' framework agreements with suppliers to lock in supply volumes while allowing prices to float with the market, reducing unilateral risk.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - When quoting for export orders, include raw material price fluctuation clauses in contracts, specifying a trigger mechanism for price renegotiation (e.g., when raw material prices fluctuate by more than 5%). - Take advantage of the current low raw material prices to build appropriate inventory for existing orders, but avoid speculative over-purchasing. - Monitor raw material price trends in Southeast Asia. If domestic polyester filament yarn prices continue to weaken, consider shifting some procurement to domestic sources to enhance the competitiveness of export products.
Every fluctuation in the chemical fiber market's production-sales ratio serves as a barometer of industrial supply-demand dynamics. Behind the 42.3% figure lies a transformation from passive acceptance to active choice by downstream players. For industry practitioners, understanding this signal is more important than predicting price movements.