Polyester filament prices are rising again, but this time mill owners are far calmer than after the Spring Festival. The frenzied daily hikes of 500, 1000, or even 1500 yuan per ton have not returned; instead, modest increases of 50 to 100 yuan per day are observed. On the surface, this reflects normal market reactions to crude oil price surges. Underneath, however, lies the widening crack in global energy supply chains caused by the second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Background
The first blockade after the Spring Festival led to global oil shortages: Japan switched to black-and-white packaging, and several Southeast Asian countries reduced workdays and limited fuel station supplies. After the US-Iran memorandum, the strait briefly reopened, but the restocking window was short. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, only about 28 ships passed daily, compared to 130-138 before the conflict. Within five days of the agreement, approximately 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium. US forces escorted over 800 vessels carrying about 400 million barrels, yet the International Maritime Organization reported on July 8 that hundreds of ships and 6,000 seafarers remained stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Inventory gaps are far from filled, and a new blockade has already begun. This means the crude oil replenished during the brief window is insufficient to cover previous consumption, and energy tensions will escalate rapidly.
Industry Impact
In the short term, China's textile industry benefits from this energy crisis. In the first half of the year, Southeast Asian countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy faced severe production disruptions, driving overseas textile orders requiring quality and stable delivery to China. Customs data on July 14 confirms this trend: textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month in June; textile exports alone grew 12.2%, while apparel exports rose 3.2%. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, with textiles contributing $73 billion, up 3.5%.
Long-term risks, however, are significant. Sustained blockade will exacerbate global inflation, especially crude oil prices, the lifeblood of modern industry. If multiple economies falter due to oil shortages, China's textile export backbone will face severe challenges. The US debt crisis, global inflation, and the AI bubble have already made the global economy fragile. Surging oil prices could trigger Fed rate hikes and a global liquidity crisis. While China has reduced crude import dependence through new energy and coal chemicals, most countries lack this capability.