On July 16, the trading data for polyester filament yarn sent a worrying signal: the average sales-to-production ratio among sample enterprises stood at only 33.1%, a sharp drop of 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, only about 33 tons were absorbed by the market, with the remaining nearly 70% converting into inventory. For the chemical fiber industry, which relies on high turnover rates, this figure indicates further intensification of the contradiction between upstream and downstream players.
The Truth Behind the Plunging Sales-to-Production Ratio
Looking at the specific sample data, the sales-to-production ratios of the 25 sample enterprises on that day were highly dispersed: the lowest was 0%, the highest only 50%, and the median around 25%. Over half of the enterprises had ratios below 30%, reflecting a general lack of effective buying support in the market. Industry public data indicates that end-use weaving enterprises are suffering from a shortage of orders, and downstream users are only replenishing on a need-to basis, unwilling to build any additional inventory. This "waiting for orders to produce" mentality has directly led to sluggish trading in the polyester filament yarn market.
China Customs data also corroborates the weakness in end-demand. In the first half of 2026, the growth rate of apparel and clothing accessory exports slowed, with some categories even experiencing year-on-year declines. As an intermediate link in the textile supply chain, the sales-to-production data for polyester filament yarn often leads trends in end-consumption. The 33.1% ratio may signal that the entire chain, from fabric to apparel, will face destocking pressure in the coming months.
Chain Reaction: From Chemical Fiber to Weaving
Persistently low sales-to-production ratios mean cash flow pressure and rising inventory costs for chemical fiber companies. Polyester filament yarn production is a continuous process, with high shutdown costs, making it difficult for companies to quickly adjust supply by reducing output. Therefore, when demand fails to absorb supply, inventory accumulation is almost inevitable. This, in turn, suppresses price expectations for chemical fiber products, creating a vicious cycle of "falling volume and falling prices."
For downstream weaving companies, the bargaining power in raw material procurement is increasing. A 33.1% sales-to-production ratio means that chemical fiber plants have a stronger willingness to sell, providing buyers with room for negotiation. However, the lack of end-user orders constrains the release of purchasing volume, creating an awkward situation of "low prices but hesitation to buy in bulk." In traditional textile clusters like Shengze and Keqiao, operating rates have generally remained below 70% recently, with some small and medium-sized weaving mills even opting for off-peak production or temporary shutdowns to cope with insufficient orders.
Dual Pressure from Raw Material Costs and End Markets
From a cost perspective, upstream raw material prices such as PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) have been relatively stable recently, but volatility in crude oil prices still brings uncertainty to chemical fiber costs. Polyester filament yarn companies face a dilemma of "rigid costs but elastic demand": raw material prices are hard to reduce, while product selling prices are suppressed by weak demand.
Meanwhile, the end-consumer market has not shown a significant rebound. The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel retail sales has slowed, and the export market is affected by trade barriers and a slowdown in overseas economies. New orders are mostly short-term and small-lot. This "low volume, high frequency" order structure makes downstream weaving companies prefer to purchase on demand rather than build inventory.