Downstream purchasing sentiment has hit rock bottom, and the polyester filament yarn market is experiencing a rapid cooldown. According to publicly available industry data on July 15, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises was only 42.3%, a sharp drop of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, fewer than 43 tons were picked up by downstream buyers, with the rest turning into corporate inventory.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
Looking at specific enterprise data, the day's sales ratios were highly uneven. Among the sampled statistics, only one company achieved a ratio of 160%, and another reached 100%. The vast majority of others fell in the range of 20% to 40%, with the lowest even recording zero sales. This polarized distribution indicates that there is no broad consensus on purchasing in the market. The few high-ratio companies likely relied on specific customers or pricing strategies, rather than an overall industry recovery.
More notably, the 42.3% ratio has significantly fallen below the industry's healthy line. Typically, a sales ratio of 60%-80% is considered balanced between supply and demand, while below 50% clearly signals shrinking downstream demand. The July 15 data has directly entered the 'contraction' zone, and a single-day drop of nearly 25 percentage points is rare in the past six months.
Deeper Reasons for Downstream Caution
Beneath the surface of 'buyers maintaining essential purchases' lies the transmission of insufficient terminal textile and apparel orders. Weaving enterprises themselves are under the dual pressure of high finished product inventory and thin profit margins, naturally making them conservative in raw material procurement. They no longer build up stock for 'possible peak seasons' but compress their procurement rhythm to a 'buy-as-you-use' model. The essence of this behavior is shifting inventory pressure upstream to raw material suppliers.
From the cost side, although crude oil and PTA prices have fluctuated recently, they have not formed a clear one-way upward trend. Downstream buyers lack the 'price hike expectation' to drive procurement. When the cost side cannot provide directional guidance, waiting becomes the safest choice. This further reinforces the sluggish sales ratio.
Chain Reactions in the Industry Chain
The persistent low sales ratio most directly leads to passive accumulation of inventory for polyester filament yarn enterprises. Increased inventory means higher capital occupation and storage costs. To alleviate pressure, companies are likely to lower factory ex-factory prices or launch promotional policies. This will put substantial downward pressure on polyester filament yarn prices.
If this trend continues, pressure will shift further upstream to polyester chips and PTA. Polyester plants may be forced to cut operating rates to balance supply and demand. For downstream weaving enterprises, the expectation of falling raw material prices will actually strengthen their 'wait-and-see' mentality, forming a negative feedback loop of 'prices fall, purchases shrink.'