Crude oil prices have once again become the focal point for the polyester supply chain. The second closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global energy supply, pushing polyester filament yarn prices up by 50 to 100 yuan per ton daily. Compared with the post-Spring Festival surge of up to 1,500 yuan per ton in a single day, this round of price hikes is milder and slower, and weaving mills are responding more calmly.
Background: Energy Gap and Short-Term Boost
The first closure after the Spring Festival caused severe crude oil shortages across Asia, forcing Japan and Southeast Asian countries to cut industrial oil use. Although the strait briefly reopened from mid-June to early July, daily vessel traffic averaged only 28, far below the pre-conflict level of 130-138, indicating insufficient inventory replenishment. IMF data shows only about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports during the window, while the 400 million barrels escorted by the U.S. Navy could not fill the prior deficit. The second closure now tightens Asia's energy supply again.
This situation offers a short-term advantage for China's textile industry. Southeast Asian countries, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, face frequent production disruptions, driving overseas orders seeking stable delivery to China. According to the General Administration of Customs data released on July 14, textile and apparel exports in June grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month, with textile exports up 7.4% month-on-month and apparel exports up 21%. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year. The order-shifting effect is evident.
Industry Impact: Price Pass-Through and Long-Term Risks
Polyester yarn price increases directly raise costs for weaving mills. However, the current rise is limited, and the pass-through from crude to polyester is delayed, allowing mills to buffer with inventories and negotiations. The real concern is long-term: with global inflation high, the U.S. debt crisis, and AI bubble risks, sustained high crude prices could trigger Fed rate hikes, tightening global liquidity. While China has reduced oil import dependence through new energy and coal chemicals, most countries lack this capability. External demand is a key pillar for China's textile industry; if the global economy falters, the order-shifting benefit may quickly vanish.
Overcapacity and internal competition remain unresolved. If upstream costs keep rising while end demand weakens, profit margins will be squeezed further. Companies must balance cost control with market expansion.