33.1%—that was the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn (PFY) sample enterprises on July 16, a sharp drop of 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. In the chemical fiber industry, this figure means that for every 100 tons of filament produced, only 33 tons found buyers. The drying up of terminal orders is now cascading from downstream weaving mills to upstream chemical fiber factories, creating a rare 'demand vacuum zone' along the supply chain.
Industrial Signals Behind the Data
According to China Customs and industry monitoring data, the mid-July sales figures are not an isolated incident. Looking at the sample enterprises, the sales rate distribution was extremely fragmented: the lowest was 0%, the highest 50%, but most companies clustered in the 20%-35% range. This coexistence of 'zero transactions' and 'barely half sold' reflects a market that has shifted from structural divergence to comprehensive weakness.
Polyester filament yarn, as a core intermediate in the chemical fiber chain, directly impacts upstream demand for PTA and MEG, as well as downstream supply of grey fabrics and finished textiles. The current 33.1% sales rate means inventory pressure is concentrating upstream. Feedback from weaving mills in Shengze indicates some factories have cut operating rates to below 60% in response to postponed or canceled orders from apparel brands.
Terminal Order Drought: From 'Rush to Buy' to 'Wait and See'
Looking back to the same period in 2025, PFY sales rates typically ranged from 60% to 80%, with downstream mills even locking in orders a week in advance. Today's 33.1% reflects collective caution among brand owners and traders. High inflation and destocking cycles in Western markets, coupled with the recovery of textile capacity in Southeast Asia, are pressuring both domestic and export demand for China's chemical fiber downstream.
Traders at Keqiao Textile City report that the turnover rate for summer fabrics has slowed significantly this year, with inventory turnover days for some standard varieties extending from 30 days to over 45 days. This 'slow turnover' at the terminal directly suppresses weaving mills' willingness to purchase PFY, creating a vicious cycle: the fewer orders, the less stockpiling; the less stockpiling, the more downward pressure on prices.
Cost Support Fails: Chemical Fiber Pricing Logic Is Being Redefined
Typically, chemical fiber prices are heavily influenced by crude oil and PX costs. But mid-July data shows that even with relatively stable upstream raw material prices, the absence of terminal demand can still cause sales rates to 'free fall.' This means the pricing power in the chemical fiber industry is shifting from the cost side to the demand side—when downstream has no orders, even low raw material prices cannot stimulate purchasing.
For chemical fiber plants, this shift is painful. The past profit model of 'cost hikes lead to downstream panic buying' is no longer sustainable. Some polyester plants have started proactive production cuts, attempting to stabilize price expectations by shrinking supply, but with limited effect. Industry data shows that polyester operating rates have dropped from over 90% to around 86% in early July; unless production cuts match the decline in demand, inventory pressure will persist.