On July 17, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn samples stood at 33.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous day. This public industry data means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only about 33 tons were purchased by downstream buyers, with the remaining 67 tons turning into inventory. Behind the descriptions of weak demand, low buying sentiment, and sluggish market transactions lies a game being played between the upstream and downstream of the chemical fiber industry chain.
Signals Behind the Sales Data
The 33.0% sales rate is not an isolated case. From July 15 to 17, the sales rates of polyester filament yarn samples hovered in the 30%-40% range, far below the normal operating level of 60%-70%. Specifically, the distribution on July 17 was highly dispersed: the lowest was 0%, the highest was 60%, and most were concentrated in the 15%-35% range. This distribution pattern, with few at both ends and many in the middle, reflects a lack of unified price expectations in the market and significant differences in the order-taking capabilities of various enterprises.
Low sales rates directly push up the inventory days of polyester plants. According to industry experience, when the sales rate remains below 40% for a consecutive week, the finished product inventory of polyester plants will quickly rise to more than 20 days, approaching the warning line. This means upstream enterprises face a dilemma: either reduce prices to promote sales and recover funds, or cut production to support prices and maintain profits.
Chain Reaction: From Weaving to Chemical Fiber
The direct reason for the low sales rate of polyester filament yarn is the insufficient willingness of downstream weaving enterprises to purchase. Currently, it is the traditional off-season for the textile industry. Terminal clothing orders have not yet started on a large scale, and weaving enterprises themselves have limited operating rates, naturally shrinking their demand for raw materials. More critically, weaving enterprises generally hold a "buy on rising, not on falling" mentality—under the expectation of declining raw material prices, they prefer to maintain low inventory operations rather than replenish at high prices.
This mentality is transmitting upstream. The increasing inventory pressure of polyester plants may force raw material prices such as PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) and MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) to weaken. Once raw material prices soften, the cost support for polyester filament yarn will weaken, further opening up room for price declines, forming a negative feedback loop of "weak demand → low sales rate → high inventory → falling prices → wait-and-see purchasing."
Regional Industrial Clusters and Product Category Analysis
From a regional perspective, the main production areas of polyester filament yarn, such as Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang Province and Shengze in Jiangsu Province, are the primary sources of the sales data samples. These areas are also home to weaving industry clusters. The low sales rate directly reflects the operating conditions of local weaving enterprises. Taking Shengze as an example, the operating rate of water-jet looms has dropped from 75% in May to around 60% in mid-July, which is highly consistent with the downward trend of the polyester filament yarn sales rate.
From a product category perspective, the statistics cover major polyester filament yarn types such as FDY (Fully Drawn Yarn), POY (Partially Oriented Yarn), and DTY (Draw Textured Yarn). Among them, the sales rates of FDY and POY are generally lower than those of DTY. This is related to the terminal fabric demand structure—DTY is mostly used for knitted fabrics, and orders for knitted apparel are relatively stable, giving DTY slightly stronger demand resilience.
Market Outlook and Operational Recommendations
Looking ahead, the polyester filament yarn market is unlikely to emerge from its downturn in the short term. July and August are still the off-season for textiles, and there is little hope for substantial improvement in downstream orders. However, the stocking demand for the traditional peak season in September may begin to release in mid-to-late August, at which point the sales rate is expected to recover. For participants at all levels of the industry chain, the key at present is to manage cash flow and inventory risks well.
For Buyers - Maintain a low inventory strategy in the short term, leveraging off-season bargaining power to make phased purchases and lower average costs. - Pay attention to the promotional periods of polyester plants in late August, which are often price troughs. - Sign price-protection agreements or forward contracts with suppliers to lock in raw material costs before the peak season.
For Weaving Enterprises - Flexibly schedule production based on your own order situation, avoiding hoarding that ties up capital. - Use the off-season for equipment maintenance and product upgrades to enhance competitiveness during the peak season. - Strengthen management of grey fabric inventory, prioritizing inventory digestion to reduce passive demand for raw materials.
The current market deadlock is essentially a mismatch between supply and demand. Without a clear recovery in terminal consumption, any upstream price support efforts will be difficult to sustain. Participants in the chemical fiber industry chain need to prepare for a "winter" and wait for clear demand signals before adjusting strategies.