Crude oil prices have surged again, pushing up polyester raw material costs. In recent days, polyester yarn prices have been raised by 50 to 100 yuan per ton daily, a moderate and steady pace. This contrasts sharply with the post-Lunar New Year spike, when prices jumped by 500 yuan in a single day and even 1,500 yuan within 24 hours. Weaving mill owners are generally calm this time, avoiding panic buying.
Background: The Crude Gap and Second Closure
The direct trigger is the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. After a brief reopening following the US-Iran memorandum, Asian countries rushed to replenish crude stocks, but the volume was far from sufficient to fill the previous deficit. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, an average of only 28 vessels passed daily, compared to 130-138 before the conflict. In the five days after the agreement, about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium. The US reported escorting over 800 vessels carrying 400 million barrels since early May. Yet, the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These figures indicate the global crude supply gap remains unfilled, and the new blockade will exacerbate shortages.
Industry Impact: Short-Term Gain vs. Long-Term Risk
For China's textile sector, the energy crisis offers a short-term boost. In the first half of the year, due to energy disruptions in Southeast Asian countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, many overseas orders seeking stable quality and delivery shifted to China. Customs data on July 14 shows June textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports alone grew 12.2%. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%. This order reshoring trend may continue under the second blockade.
However, long-term risks loom. The Strait closure will fuel global inflation, especially oil price hikes that may force the Fed to raise interest rates, worsening liquidity crises. While China has reduced crude dependence via new energy and coal chemicals, most nations lack such alternatives. If the global economy falters due to energy shortages, China's textile export base will suffer—foreign trade is a critical pillar, and the industry's capacity scale makes it vulnerable to external demand shifts.