The second closure of the Strait of Hormuz has again exerted cost pressure on the polyester supply chain. Unlike the extreme spike earlier this year, when polyester yarn surged by 1,500 yuan per ton in a single day, the current price increase is more moderate—50 to 100 yuan per ton daily. Weaving mills have responded calmly, with limited stockpiling enthusiasm.
Cost Side: Brief Refueling Window, Persistent Supply Gap
The core driver of this round of raw material price hikes is again the disruption in crude oil supply. According to a July 8 statement from the International Maritime Organization, hundreds of ships and approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. This indicates that, despite a brief reopening of the Strait after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, actual shipping efficiency remains far below normal. Data from the IMF's "Port Watch" project shows that between June 18 and July 5, an average of only 28 vessels passed through daily, compared to 130-138 before the conflict. The nearly 80% drop in throughput means Asian countries' crude replenishment efforts have fallen far short of filling the previous inventory gap.
Iran claims to have exported 40 million barrels of crude since the agreement, at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The US says it has escorted over 800 commercial ships since early May, transporting about 400 million barrels. But these figures actually highlight the fragile and partial nature of supply chain recovery. With the Strait closed again, the refueling window has shut, crude prices have regained upward momentum, and polyester raw material cost support has strengthened sharply.
Industry Impact: Short-Term Order Inflow, Long-Term Risks Lurk
In the short term, the energy crisis has created an "accidental benefit" for China's textile industry. In the first half of this year, many Southeast Asian countries, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy, saw severe production disruptions. China Customs data for June shows textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports alone grew 12.2% year-on-year. The cumulative first-half export value reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%. Behind these figures are large volumes of overseas orders—seeking delivery stability and quality control—that shifted from Southeast Asia to China.
However, how long this window of opportunity lasts depends on the evolution of the energy crisis. Prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would fuel global inflation, especially in the US, potentially forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further, exacerbating global liquidity tightening. Crude oil is the lifeblood of modern industry; a real shortage would disrupt basic economic order in many countries. Although China has reduced its dependence on crude imports through coal chemical and new energy development, the ultimate demand for textile exports still relies on a healthy global economy.