On July 16, the polyester filament yarn market released a clear signal of weakness: the average sales-to-production ratio among sample enterprises stood at only 33.1%, a sharp drop of 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This level has touched multiple seasonal lows this year, but more alarmingly, daily ratios were mostly concentrated in the 20% to 40% range, with only a few firms barely reaching 50%.
Terminal order gap is the root cause
The direct trigger for the cliff-like decline in the sales ratio is not cost-side volatility but a substantive lack of terminal orders. Feedback from downstream weaving hubs indicates that grey fabric inventories in major clusters like Shengze, Keqiao, and Nantong are accumulating, and the cycle for new order placement has notably lengthened. Fabric traders and garment brands have slowed procurement, pushing draw-texturing and weaving mills into a conservative 'buy-as-needed' mode. This pattern of essential restocking means that even if upstream factories offer discounts, it is difficult to trigger large-scale stockpiling.
Notably, the distribution of current sales data is extremely narrow—over 80% of sample enterprises reported ratios below 40%, and none exceeded 50%. This is not a fluctuation for individual firms but a sector-wide demand contraction. For polyester filament producers, even if operating rates remain unchanged, finished product inventories will passively accumulate at a pace of approximately 6-7 percentage points per day.
Inventory pressure transmits upstream to polyester sector
The direct consequence of persistently low sales ratios is a rapid rise in inventory levels at polyester plants. According to public industry data, the equity inventories for POY, FDY, and DTY in early July had already increased by 2-3 days compared to the end of June. If the current sales ratio fails to recover above 40% within the next week, polyester plants will face 'overstock' risks, potentially forcing deeper production cuts or maintenance shutdowns.
This pressure is now transmitting upstream along the supply chain. The PTA and MEG markets are already feeling the chill from the demand side—if the polyester operating rate drops from the current 88% to below 85%, it would directly reduce raw material consumption by approximately 150,000-200,000 tons per month. For PTA suppliers, this means the previously tight supply-demand balance could turn loose, thereby squeezing processing margins.
Impact on weaving enterprises' procurement strategies
For grey fabric mills and fabric traders, raw material procurement decisions at this juncture require greater prudence. Polyester filament prices have room to decline further under inventory pressure, but the downside is constrained by polyester plants' production cut thresholds. Historical experience shows that when the sales ratio falls below 40% for three consecutive days, polyester plants typically launch price promotions, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan per ton. This implies that buyers can appropriately compress safety stock levels and adopt a 'wait for price drops before restocking' strategy rather than rushing to buy the dip.
At the same time, attention must be paid to the recovery pace of terminal orders. If autumn apparel orders gradually materialize in August as in previous years, the current low sales ratio may merely be a 'bottoming out' in seasonal fluctuations. However, if export orders continue to be delayed due to exchange rate or trade policy factors, the industry may face a longer destocking cycle.