On July 15, 2026, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises plummeted to 42.3%, a sharp drop of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day, marking a recent low. This figure directly reflects downstream users' extreme caution in raw material procurement, with the market as a whole sinking into a wait-and-see quagmire.
Signals Behind the Data
Looking at individual enterprise data, the sales-to-production ratio on that day was highly uneven: most companies fell in the 20%-40% range, with only a few reaching 60% or above 100%. This divergence suggests that while a handful of firms with stable orders or pricing advantages managed to maintain shipments, overall industry demand has significantly contracted. China Customs data shows that related products like polyester chips and polyester staple fiber also experienced varying degrees of decline, indicating this is not a single-variety fluctuation but a chain reaction across the entire chemical fiber industry.
National Bureau of Statistics public data further corroborates that fixed asset investment growth in the textile industry slowed in the first half of 2026, with capacity utilization rates in downstream weaving and dyeing sectors generally lower than the same period last year. This explains why polyester filament downstream users are opting for 'purchase on demand' rather than 'stockpiling'—uncertainty in end orders is transmitting upstream.
Deeper Logic Behind Downstream Caution
Currently, downstream weaving enterprises face dual pressures. On one hand, international textile demand is weak, with major buyers in Europe and the US showing no clear recovery in procurement orders, and domestic garment export growth rates have narrowed for three consecutive months. On the other hand, raw material price volatility has intensified—polyester filament saw a brief rebound in early July but then quickly fell back, and this 'roller-coaster' pattern further reinforces buyers' wait-and-see attitude.
From the perspective of industrial clusters, in major polyester filament production and sales areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, the frequency of inquiries from traders and weaving mills has notably decreased recently, with actual transactions mostly comprising small or urgent orders. This 'zero inventory' or 'low inventory' strategy reduces capital occupation in the short term but also increases the risk of supply chain disruption. If raw material prices suddenly spike or logistics are disrupted, companies lacking inventory buffers will find themselves in a passive position.
Industry Significance of Sales-to-Production Ratio Fluctuations
The sales-to-production ratio is a key indicator for measuring supply-demand balance in the chemical fiber market. A ratio of 42.3% means that more than half of the polyester filament produced that day failed to translate into actual sales, with the unsold inventory accumulating directly in factory warehouses. For polyester plants, sustained low sales-to-production ratios will push up inventory days, forcing companies to alleviate pressure through price cuts or production reductions.
In fact, some enterprises have already begun adjusting production schedules. Industry public data shows that since mid-July, several polyester plants in East China have announced production cuts or maintenance, involving approximately 800,000 tons per year of polyester filament capacity. While this supply-side contraction may stabilize prices in the short term, in the long run, demand-side recovery remains the decisive factor.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - Current raw material prices are at a cyclical low, but downside risk has not fully dissipated. Adopt a 'batch purchasing, lock-in base inventory' strategy to avoid large-scale stockpiling at once. - Closely monitor polyester plant maintenance schedules and inventory changes. July-August is the traditional maintenance season, and supply contraction could create a price rebound window. - Establish more flexible settlement mechanisms with suppliers, such as payment upon delivery or promissory notes, to ease cash flow pressure.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Overseas order cycles are generally shortening. Adopt a 'short order + quick response' model to reduce risks from long-term contracts. - Leverage the current window of low raw material costs to optimize export product pricing structures and enhance competitiveness. - Pay close attention to RMB exchange rate fluctuations and shipping cost trends, as their impact on export profits is no less significant than raw material costs.
Conclusion
The sharp drop in polyester filament's sales-to-production ratio is not an isolated event; it is a concentrated reflection of the global textile supply chain adjustment in the chemical fiber segment. From downstream cautious procurement to upstream proactive production cuts, the market is seeking a new equilibrium. For industry participants, rather than passively waiting for a market rebound, it is wiser to proactively adjust inventory strategies and order structures. After all, in an era where uncertainty has become the norm, flexibility matters more than scale.