The second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has once again pushed polyester filament prices upward, but the pace and intensity are markedly different from the frenzy seen after the Lunar New Year. The current price hike is more moderate and slower, with weaving mill owners showing notable calm. This contrast reflects a re-evaluation of how energy crises transmit through the textile supply chain—short-term order gains are now colliding with long-term macroeconomic risks.
Event Background
During the first Strait blockade post-Lunar New Year, global crude supply disruptions led to severe naphtha shortages. Japan and several Southeast Asian nations were forced to cut industrial oil use, resorting to measures like black-and-white packaging and reduced workdays. After the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, the strait partially reopened, but traffic remains far below pre-crisis levels. According to the IMF’s "Port Watch" project, daily vessel transits averaged just 28 from June 18 to July 5, compared to 130-138 before the conflict.
In the five days following the agreement, about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports. Iran claims to have exported 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The US reports escorting over 800 vessels carrying about 400 million barrels since early May. Yet the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These figures indicate that Asian nations replenished stocks only modestly during the open window, leaving old gaps unfilled before the new blockade.
Industry Impact
In the short term, the energy crisis benefits China’s textile sector. Southeast Asian countries, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, have seen production severely disrupted. In contrast, China’s investments in new energy and coal chemical industries have significantly reduced its crude import dependence, enhancing supply chain stability. Orders demanding quality and timely delivery are accelerating their shift to China.
Customs data from July 14 confirms this: June textile and apparel exports grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports rose 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM; apparel exports increased 3.2% YoY and 21% MoM. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% YoY, with textiles at $73 billion (+3.5%) and apparel at $72.96 billion (-0.7%). These figures underscore the short-term order repatriation trend.
Long-term risks, however, are significant. The blockade directly pushes up oil prices, and crude is the lifeblood of modern industry. If a global oil shortage materializes, many economies may struggle to maintain basic order. China has prepared through new energy and coal chemicals, but it is an exception. More critically, rising oil prices could reignite US inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to hike rates, triggering global liquidity tightening.
For the textile industry, existing capacity makes foreign trade indispensable. A global economic downturn would leave China vulnerable. The polyester price hike itself is a cost pressure for weavers, but its deeper implication is the fragility of global supply chains. When energy crises combine with inflation expectations, textile firms face not just raw material volatility, but potential contraction in external demand.