On July 16, the average sales-to-output ratio among sampled polyester filament yarn makers stood at 33.1%, plunging 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced, only 33 tons were purchased by downstream buyers, accelerating inventory accumulation. A lack of end-user orders, combined with a just-in-time replenishment model, has brought the supply-demand imbalance in the polyester chain to a head during the seasonal lull.
Sales Ratio Cliff: Demand Vacuum in Numbers
Industry data shows that among the 25 sample enterprises surveyed on July 16, the distribution of sales-to-output ratios exhibited a clear long-tail pattern: the highest was 50%, the lowest 0%, with the majority hovering between 20% and 35%. Specifically, only three firms achieved a 50% ratio, five were around 35%, and twelve—nearly half—recorded ratios below 30%. This extreme divergence is not a reflection of individual company mismanagement but rather a symptom of a near-total halt in downstream weaving activity.
The core issue is a dearth of end-user orders. July is traditionally a low season for textiles, but this year’s order contraction has exceeded expectations. Downstream texturizing and weaving mills report that the lead time for new orders has stretched from 15–20 days to over 30 days; some small weaving mills have no orders at all and have been forced to cut production or shut down. The direct consequence of depressed buying sentiment is that while polyester filament yarn factory operating rates remain high, sales ratios continue to fall and inventory days are climbing rapidly.
Reverse Inventory Pressure: From Weaving to Polyester to Feedstock
The textile industry typically views inventory pressure as a downstream-to-upstream transmission. Finished goods inventory buildup at the weaving stage curbs demand for polyester filament yarn; poor sales at filament yarn factories then reduce their purchases of polyester chips; chip plants in turn slow their procurement of PTA and MEG feedstocks. Current sales ratio data indicates that this reverse transmission chain has already been triggered.
A 33.1% sales ratio means that more than two-thirds of the day’s polyester filament yarn output did not convert into revenue but instead entered social inventory. By industry estimates, if this ratio persists for a week, filament yarn factories’ finished goods inventory will increase by roughly 7–10 days’ worth of usage, pushing some firms close to their warning thresholds. At that point, production cuts to support prices or price cuts to clear inventory become inevitable. For downstream buyers, raw material prices may have room to fall in the near term, but they should be aware that if factories initiate large-scale production cuts, supply contraction could trigger a price rebound.
Q3 Destocking Slows: Procurement Strategy Shifts to Defense
Seasonally, Q3 is typically a transition period when polyester chain inventories shift from accumulation to reduction. However, the sharp drop in sales ratios in mid-July has shattered expectations of a “not-so-slow season.” If end-user orders fail to recover significantly before the end of August, the entire third quarter could be characterized by passive inventory buildup.
On the feedstock supply side, spot prices for PTA and MEG have already shown signs of weakness. Profit margins for polyester chips and filament yarn are being squeezed, and some producers may bring forward summer maintenance shutdowns to offset inventory pressure. For downstream weaving and garment companies, the current raw material price window offers a rare “buyer’s market” opportunity—but only if their own order books can support restocking.