On July 17, the average production-sales ratio of sample polyester filament enterprises was only 33.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous day. This figure has hovered around 30% for several consecutive days, meaning that over 60% of production capacity failed to translate into actual sales. Weaving companies downstream have frozen their purchasing intentions, and the chemical fiber market is experiencing a 'buying vacuum.'
Demand Gap Behind the Data
National Bureau of Statistics public data shows that the growth rate of terminal demand in the textile industry has slowed significantly in the first half of this year. As an intermediate link, the production-sales ratio of polyester filament directly reflects the transmission chain from fabric to apparel. A ratio of 33% means that even if upstream factories maintain normal operations, nearly 70% of their daily output goes straight into inventory.
Looking at specific enterprise samples, the distribution of production-sales data for the day was extremely uneven: the highest was only 60%, while the lowest was zero. Most companies fell in the 20%-35% range, showing a clear 'long-tail downturn' characteristic. This dispersion indicates that the problem is not limited to individual companies but that the entire market lacks effective buying support.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, factors such as slowing growth in terminal apparel retail and the return of foreign trade orders to Southeast Asia are progressively compressing demand space upstream. As a core intermediate product in the polyester chain, the production-sales data of polyester filament serves as the most direct 'thermometer' of industry conditions.
Inventory Accumulation and Price Pressure
The persistent low production-sales ratio directly leads to rapid inventory accumulation. Estimated based on average industry capacity utilization, if the ratio remains at 33% for an extended period, the inventory turnover days of sample enterprises will more than double compared to normal cycles. This means companies face greater pressure from capital occupation and warehousing costs.
With no signs of improvement on the demand side, inventory pressure will force production companies to adjust their strategies. Historical experience shows that when the production-sales ratio stays below 40% for two consecutive weeks, factory-gate prices of polyester filament typically drop by 3%-5%. Currently, some factories have begun offering discounts to move goods, but the 'buy on rising, not falling' mentality of downstream players limits the effectiveness of price cuts.
More notably, support from the cost side is weakening. Upstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices have also been fluctuating weakly recently, opening room for a decline in polyester filament prices. If the production-sales ratio fails to rebound above 50% within the next two weeks, the industry may face a wave of collective price cuts to reduce inventory.
Chain Reactions in Regional Industrial Clusters
In major polyester filament producing areas such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, some weaving companies have already reduced their operating rates. These small and medium-sized weaving factories in industrial clusters typically purchase raw materials based on orders. Under the current pattern of weak production and sales, they tend to maintain minimum raw material inventory. This 'just-in-time' purchasing model further exacerbates the low production-sales ratio upstream.
On the foreign trade side, the recovery of textile production capacity in Southeast Asia is diverting domestic orders. Countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh, leveraging tariff advantages and labor costs, are forming a substitution effect in conventional polyester fabrics. The contraction in external demand faced by domestic weaving companies directly reflects in their procurement volume of polyester filament.