The post-Spring Festival frenzy, where polyester yarn prices surged by 500 or even 1,500 yuan per ton in a single day, has not returned. In recent days, the second closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up polyester raw material prices, but the increases are much more moderate—daily hikes of 50 to 100 yuan have kept weaving mills relatively calm compared to the previous panic.
This 'slow bull' price trend reflects a fundamentally different supply-demand backdrop and market expectation.
From 'Panic Spike' to 'Anxiety Creep'
The first price wave after Spring Festival was driven by a complete closure of the Strait, triggering a frantic depletion of global crude oil reserves. Japan and Southeast Asian countries faced extreme measures like switching to black-and-white packaging and reducing workdays. Before the second closure, the Strait briefly reopened under a US-Iran MOU. According to IMF's 'Port Watch' data, only 28 ships passed daily from June 18 to July 5, far below the pre-conflict average of 130-138. In the first five days after the agreement, about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iran, which claimed exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium. The US reported escorting over 800 ships carrying 400 million barrels since early May. However, the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of vessels and 6,000 seafarers remain stranded.
These figures show that Asian countries did replenish some crude, but the volume was far from filling the previous gap. When the second closure hit, market panic was muted, and price drivers shifted from 'supply disruption fear' to 'restocking anxiety,' slowing the rally.
Short-Term Gains: Order Diversion Materializes
For China's textile industry, this energy crisis has become a short-term export booster. Southeast Asian nations, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, saw production disruptions, driving quality- and delivery-conscious overseas orders to China.
Customs data released on July 14 confirms this: June textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports alone grew 12.2% YoY and 7.4% MoM; apparel exports increased 3.2% YoY and 21% MoM. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% YoY.
This growth is closely tied to Southeast Asia's capacity constraints. China is capturing more mid-to-high-end orders thanks to its complete supply chain and stable energy supply. However, this 'dividend' is fragile and time-limited.
Long-Term Risks: Global Inflation and Demand Contraction
Focusing only on short-term order returns overlooks deeper systemic risks. A prolonged Strait closure will exacerbate global inflation. Crude oil, as a basic industrial input, transmits price spikes across all manufacturing. More critically, if oil-driven inflation forces the Fed to raise rates again, global liquidity will tighten.
China has reduced its crude import dependence through new energy and coal chemicals, insulating domestic textiles from direct shocks. But the industry's high export reliance means that if global demand shrinks due to high oil prices and interest rates, the order-diversion gains will be erased.
The first-half data already shows warning signs: apparel exports fell 0.7% YoY, indicating terminal demand weakness. Textile exports (yarn, fabric intermediates) grew 3.5%, driven more by restocking and order shifts than by genuine end-demand expansion.