On July 16, the chemical fiber market's trading data sent a clear signal: the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 33.1%, a sharp drop of 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only about 33 tons were absorbed by the market, with nearly 70% turning into inventory.
Behind the Sales Data: Industry Transmission
Looking at the specific data from public sample enterprises, the sales-to-production ratio distribution shows clear polarization: the highest reached 50%, while the lowest was 0%. Among the 25 sample enterprises, more than half had ratios at or below 30%, with only a few barely reaching 40%-50%. This widespread low ratio indicates the problem is not individual corporate mismanagement but a systemic contraction in downstream demand.
As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber industry chain, the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn directly reflects the transmission efficiency from weaving to the apparel end market. The current low ratio essentially represents a lagging feedback of insufficient terminal garment orders traveling upstream to raw materials. Industry public data shows that the operating rate of downstream weaving enterprises has been declining for several consecutive weeks, with grey fabric inventories piling up severely. This has led them to only maintain just-in-time replenishment for polyester filament yarn purchases, with no intention of proactive stockpiling.
Terminal Order Scarcity: The Core Contradiction
The fundamental reason for the sluggish market trading is the scarcity of terminal orders. From a macroeconomic perspective, retail growth in major global textile consumption markets has slowed down. Brands and retailers have generally adopted conservative inventory strategies, shortening order cycles and reducing order volumes. This cautious sentiment is transmitted backward along the supply chain, ultimately manifesting as persistently low sales-to-production ratios at the chemical fiber raw material end.
Notably, this low ratio is not unprecedented. Looking back at industry data from the past two months, the ratio on July 15 was still maintained at 42.3%, but it plummeted to 33.1% just one day later, indicating extremely fragile market sentiment where any disturbance could trigger further contraction in purchasing behavior. For chemical fiber producers, this means inventory pressure will rise rapidly, and some enterprises may have to resort to production cuts or maintenance shutdowns to balance supply and demand.
Direct Impact on the Industry Chain
For upstream PTA and MEG suppliers, the decline in polyester filament yarn sales-to-production ratios implies that their downstream customers will be forced to reduce operating rates, thereby decreasing demand for raw materials. Once this negative feedback loop forms, it may drag down the entire polyester industry chain's price center. For downstream weaving and dyeing enterprises, the current situation presents a window for raw material procurement—polyester filament yarn prices may come under pressure due to weak demand, but they also need to be wary of inventory depreciation risks.
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, major polyester filament yarn producing areas such as Xiaoshan and Shaoxing in Zhejiang, as well as Shengze in Jiangsu, will face significant sales pressure in the short term. Chemical fiber companies in these regions typically set monthly production and sales plans at the beginning of the month, and the poor mid-July data means the sales task for the second half of the month will be even more arduous.
Practical Recommendations
For Buyers - The current polyester filament yarn market is buyer-dominated. It is recommended to adopt a small-batch, high-frequency procurement strategy to avoid large one-time stockpiling, in response to possible further price corrections. - Closely monitor weaving enterprise operating rates and terminal garment order data. If downstream demand does not show significant improvement after the traditional August off-season ends, consider moderately extending procurement cycles. - Prioritize cooperation with suppliers whose sales-to-production ratios are relatively high (e.g., above 40%), as these companies are typically more stable in capital and inventory management.
For Producers - Immediately assess current finished goods inventory levels. For conventional specification products with inventory exceeding 15 days, consider accelerating sales through small price concessions or bundled sales. - Flexibly adjust production schedules, shifting some capacity toward differentiated, high-value-added products to avoid intense price competition on standard items. - Strengthen information sharing with downstream weaving enterprises to establish a closer production-sales linkage mechanism, preventing passive inventory buildup due to information asymmetry.
In summary, the July 16 sales-to-production ratio data is a warning signal. It suggests that after a volatile first half of the year, the chemical fiber market's second half has not ushered in the expected recovery but instead faces deeper adjustment pressure. For industry practitioners, the core task in the short term is not to chase profits but to manage cash flow and inventory risks, awaiting the true inflection point of terminal demand recovery.