The chill in the polyester filament yarn market is becoming evident from the data. On July 17, the average sales-to-production ratio of sample enterprises in the industry was only 33.0%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous trading day. Behind this figure lies a series of alarming individual performances: more than half of the sampled companies reported ratios hovering between 20% and 30%, with the lowest recording zero. Downstream buyers' sentiment is generally sluggish, and market transactions have fallen into a rare state of stagnation.
The True Temperature of Demand
What does a 33% sales-to-production ratio mean? Based on the industry's normal inventory turnover cycle, at current levels, enterprises' inventory days will passively extend to over two weeks. Looking at consecutive data from July 15 to 17, the ratio has consistently failed to break above the 40% threshold. This is no longer a one-day anomaly but a trend of weakening. Notably, only about 15% of sampled enterprises achieved a ratio of 50% or higher, showing a clear polarization—a few companies can still maintain shipments, while most face inventory pile-ups.
This divergence reflects a fundamental shift in the procurement strategy of downstream weaving mills. Speculative purchasing aimed at hoarding for price hikes has decreased sharply, replaced by a conservative approach of "buy as needed, use as you go." With weaving mill operating rates already under pressure and terminal garment orders showing no improvement, the willingness of intermediate links to replenish raw material stocks has naturally fallen to freezing point.
The Chain Reaction of Industrial Transmission
The persistently low sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn is exerting simultaneous pressure upstream and downstream. For upstream PTA and MEG, the expectation of polyester plant production cuts is forming a new bearish factor. If the ratio fails to recover above 40% in the next two weeks, polyester plants will likely initiate proactive production cuts, leading to a new round of price center decline along the PX-PTA-polyester chain.
For downstream weaving mills, the expectation of lower raw material prices actually reinforces the wait-and-see attitude. Buyers generally anticipate further room for polyester filament yarn price declines, so they prefer to risk supply disruptions rather than increase inventories. This psychological game of "the more it falls, the more they wait" traps the market in a negative cycle of low sales, high inventory, price-cut expectations, and even lower sales.
Differentiated Responses Across Regional Industrial Clusters
Different industrial clusters experience varying degrees of impact from the current market conditions. Clusters dominated by water-jet looms, such as Shengze and Changxing, suffer more directly due to severe homogenization of conventional products. In contrast, enterprises in Keqiao and Xiaoshan, known for differentiated products, maintain relatively resilient sales ratios, with some even sustaining levels above 50%. This divergence suggests that amid overall weakness, structural opportunities still exist, provided products can avoid red ocean competition.