Polyester Six Giants' Half-Year Reports: Surging Profits Signal the Advent of an 'Anti-Involution' Dividend Period

The first half of 2026 can be described as a 'money-printing' period for the six major polyester leaders. Hengli Petrochemical reported a net profit of 7.2 billion yuan, up 136% year-on-year; Hengyi Petrochemical reported 5.5-6 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 2,326%-2,547%; Eastern Shenghong reported 4.2-5 billion yuan, up 987%-1,195%; Rongsheng Petrochemical reported 5-5.2 billion yuan, up 730%-764%; Tongkun Group reported 4.1-4.5 billion yuan, up 274%-310%; and Xinfengming reported 1.38-1.5 billion yuan, up 95%-112%. Behind these numbers lies a dramatic shift from 'involution-driven losses' to 'anti-involution dividends' across the entire industry chain.

The Dual Engines of Profit Surge: Oil Prices and Anti-Involution

The core drivers of this profit explosion come from two levels. First, the oil price surge triggered by geopolitical conflicts. The US-Iran conflict escalated in early 2026, disrupting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices soared from $61 per barrel at the start of the year to a high of $118 per barrel in March, stabilizing around $99 per barrel in the second quarter. For Chinese refining and chemical enterprises, their diversified crude oil import channels cushioned the direct impact, which was far less severe than for countries with single-source procurement like Japan and South Korea. Instead, they benefited from the widening price spreads.

Second, the substantive implementation of the industry's 'anti-involution' policy. Over the past two years, the PX-PTA-polyester filament yarn chain was mired in overcapacity, with PTA prices at one point losing 200 yuan per ton. But starting in 2026, no new PTA capacity was added, and outdated capacity at home and abroad accelerated its exit. Leading companies effectively alleviated supply overhang through self-disciplined production cuts (e.g., proactively reducing operating rates for mainstream POY and FDY products). Institutional research reports indicate that this round of capacity expansion is nearing its end, and the supply-demand landscape is improving.

Value Chain Transmission: The Definitive Advantage of Integrated Leaders

A common feature among these six companies is their 'integrated refining and chemical' layout. Hengli operates 20 million tons/year of refining, 6 million tons/year of coal chemicals, and 16.6 million tons/year of PTA capacity. Shenghong has 2.8 million tons/year of PX and 6.3 million tons/year of PTA. Rongsheng relies on the ZPC mega integrated refining and chemical facility. This full-chain vertical integration model allows them to lock in upstream profits within the system during periods of rising raw material prices, preventing profit erosion in intermediate links.

For downstream fabric and garment processing enterprises, this sends a clear signal: raw material price volatility will become the norm. In the second quarter of 2026, the processing spreads for PTA and polyester filament yarn have already recovered significantly year-on-year. If tensions in the Middle East escalate again, crude oil prices could rise further, passing cost pressure down the polyester raw material chain. Buyers need to reassess their inventory strategies and supply chain resilience.

Potential Impact on Regional Industrial Clusters and Foreign Trade

The production bases of the six giants are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang (Tongkun, Rongsheng, Xinfengming), Jiangsu (Hengli, Shenghong), and Fujian (Hengyi's Brunei project). These regions are the core of China's textile industry. The profit surge for leading companies means they have stronger capital capacity for technological upgrades and capacity expansion, which may accelerate the exit of small and medium-sized enterprises.

In terms of foreign trade, the steady progress of Hengyi's Brunei Phase II project and coal-to-ethylene glycol project, as well as Shenghong's layout in the aromatics chain products, all point to a trend: Chinese polyester companies are shifting from 'raw material import dependence' to 'global capacity deployment.' For overseas buyers, this means a more stable supply source, but it may also lead to reduced bargaining power due to increased capacity concentration.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Establish a dynamic inventory management mechanism, closely monitor the correlation between Brent crude oil prices and PTA/polyester filament yarn spreads, and moderately increase raw material reserves when oil prices are low. - Evaluate the completeness of suppliers' supply chains: prioritize companies with integrated refining and chemical capabilities, as they have stronger risk resistance and higher supply stability during raw material price fluctuations. - Monitor the risk of SME exit: if your main supplier is a small or medium-sized polyester plant, prepare alternative sourcing plans in advance to avoid supply disruptions due to the exit of outdated capacity.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - Include raw material price fluctuation clauses in export contracts, stipulating that a price adjustment mechanism can be triggered when PTA or polyester filament yarn prices rise beyond a certain percentage. - Leverage the capacity release cycle of leading companies' overseas projects (e.g., Hengyi's Brunei Phase II) to lock in long-term orders in advance, mitigating short-term price volatility risks. - Focus on the Southeast Asian market: the PX and PTA capacity from Hengyi's Brunei project may alter regional trade flows, potentially providing cheaper raw material supplies for textile processing enterprises in Southeast Asia.