Polyester yarn prices are climbing again after months, but weaving mill owners are reacting far more calmly than they did after the Spring Festival.
The 'Temperature Gap' in Raw Material Hikes
Over the past week, polyester feedstock prices have surged alongside crude oil, with polyester yarn quotes rising in increments of 50 to 100 yuan per ton per day. However, compared to the post-Spring Festival rally—where daily jumps reached 500 to 1,500 yuan per ton—the current increase is both smaller in magnitude and slower in pace.
Behind this 'temperature gap' lies a more rational expectation of raw material volatility across the supply chain. Having endured severe swings in the first half of the year, weaving mills have generally reduced their raw material inventories and shifted to a 'buy-as-needed' procurement strategy. This means that even if polyester yarn prices continue to rise, the panic hoarding seen earlier is unlikely to recur. For fabric traders, the pass-through of raw material costs to grey fabrics and finished goods takes time, temporarily squeezing margins, but price adjustment flexibility remains intact.
The Strait Blockade: From 'Refill Window' to 'Second Shock'
What truly demands attention is not domestic feedstock prices but the energy supply crisis triggered by the second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
After the first blockade ended post-Spring Festival, Asian countries rushed to replenish crude oil inventories during a brief passage window. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, 513 vessels transited the strait, averaging about 28 per day—far below the pre-conflict average of 130-138 per day. In the five days after the agreement, approximately 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The U.S. reported escorting over 800 commercial vessels carrying about 400 million barrels of crude since early May.
But these replenishments fell far short of filling the earlier gap. An International Maritime Organization statement on July 8 noted that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remained stranded in the Persian Gulf. Now, a new blockade has been reimposed, exposing the fragility of energy supply.
The Hidden Risk Behind Export Rebound
In the short term, the energy crisis had been a boon for China's textile industry. In the first half of the year, Southeast Asian countries, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern energy, saw severe production disruptions, driving overseas orders for quality and timely delivery to China. Data from the General Administration of Customs on July 14 shows that textile and apparel exports in June rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports alone grew 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month, while apparel exports increased 3.2% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month. First-half cumulative textile and apparel exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year.
But the long-term risk cannot be ignored. Crude oil is the bedrock of modern industry. A sustained global oil shortage would disrupt economic order in most countries. While China has reduced its import dependence through new energy and coal-to-chemicals initiatives, most nations lack this foundation. Should oil prices fuel U.S. inflation, triggering Federal Reserve rate hikes, global liquidity would tighten. China's textile sector, with its high export dependence, would suffer if the global economy falters.