On July 16, the average sales rate of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises dropped to 33.1%, a sharp decrease of 9.2 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that more than 60% of the chemical fiber production capacity on that day failed to convert into effective orders, signaling a terminal demand gap that has already transmitted to the upstream production stage.
Supply-Demand Imbalance Behind the Numbers
Looking at the distribution of sample sales data, more than 70% of the 25 sample enterprises recorded sales rates between 20% and 35%, with a few even hitting zero. As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber chain, polyester filament yarn's sales rate directly reflects the operating willingness of downstream weaving and texturing sectors. Industry public data shows that terminal orders are scarce, downstream buyers' purchasing sentiment is weak, and only essential replenishment is maintained, resulting in flat market transactions.
This phenomenon is not isolated. The transmission logic of the chemical fiber chain typically follows: weak terminal clothing and home textile consumption → reduced orders for weaving mills → production cuts for texturing mills → shrinking procurement of polyester filament yarn. The July 16 data is precisely the end-of-chain manifestation of this logic. Notably, a sales rate below 30% is often regarded as the threshold for the industry entering an active destocking phase, meaning that over the next 1-2 weeks, polyester plants may be forced to intensify production cuts or launch promotional policies to alleviate inventory pressure.
Industry Impact: From Price Expectations to Inventory Games
For upstream polyester plants, the direct consequence of persistently low sales rates is the accumulation of finished goods inventory. According to industry experience, if polyester filament yarn inventory days exceed 20, factories typically resort to price reductions or concessions. The July 16 data suggests that current inventory pressure is approaching the critical point. If the sales rate fails to recover above 50% in the coming week, polyester filament yarn prices may experience a phased correction, with a magnitude of around 200-300 RMB per ton.
For downstream weaving mills, low sales rates mean the purchasing window is opening. Current polyester filament yarn prices are at a relatively high level for the year, but if factories are forced to lower prices due to inventory pressure, a phased low-price replenishment opportunity will emerge. However, the uncertainty of terminal orders remains the biggest risk—if weaving mills themselves lack sufficient orders, even lower raw material prices may not translate into actual demand, potentially exacerbating the wait-and-see sentiment of 'buying on rallies, not on dips'.
From a regional industrial cluster perspective, the weaving clusters in Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan, which are major consumers of polyester filament yarn, have recently shown signs of loosening operating rates. Some small and medium-sized weaving mills have chosen to reduce loads or shut down due to lack of profitability, further suppressing raw material procurement demand. This phenomenon of simultaneous upstream and downstream load reduction historically indicates the industry entering a short-cycle adjustment phase.