In mid-July, the chemical fiber market signaled a cautionary note. The average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises dropped to 42.3% on July 15, a sharp decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This means that for every 100 tons of polyester filament yarn produced that day, only about 42 tons were purchased by downstream buyers, with nearly 60% turning into inventory. Against the backdrop of the traditional off-season and high costs, this sales ratio is reshaping the expectations and strategies of all market participants.
Sales Rate Plunge: Conservative Procurement and Wait-and-See Sentiment Dominate
The specific sales data on July 15 showed a clear divergence among sample enterprises. The sales-to-production ratio ranged from 0% to 160%, but most were concentrated in the 20% to 40% range. Only a few enterprises achieved ratios above 60%, and one company reported zero sales. This 'long tail of low values, with very few at the top' distribution indicates that downstream users have generally adopted a conservative 'produce-to-purchase' strategy, only replenishing essential quantities with little willingness to build inventory proactively.
The Texcircle Editorial Board notes that the 42.3% ratio is the lowest since the beginning of July. In the previous week, the industry average fluctuated between 60% and 70%, with July 14's figure at 67%. The single-day drop of 24.7 percentage points is not due to a sudden event, but rather a concentrated reflection of diverging expectations between upstream and downstream. Upstream polyester plants are strongly inclined to maintain prices due to cost pressures, but downstream weaving and texturing enterprises generally believe current polyester filament yarn prices are too high, and terminal orders have not shown clear recovery, leading them to adopt a 'buy only what you use' approach.
Dual Squeeze from Costs and Inventories
From the perspective of the industry chain transmission logic, the current polyester filament yarn market faces a triple pressure of 'high costs, rising inventories, and weak demand.' Upstream PX and PTA prices remain high due to fluctuations in international oil prices, providing solid cost support for polyester plants. However, downstream weaving capacity utilization has dropped to around 60% in mid-July, with the dyeing and printing sector also showing weakness. Terminal apparel brands have slowed their ordering pace, and both domestic and foreign trade orders have not seen the concentrated volume typical of the same period in previous years.
This means that social inventories of polyester filament yarn are passively accumulating. If the sales-to-production ratio remains below 50% for more than a week, the cash flow pressure on polyester plants will increase significantly. Historical experience shows that when the ratio stays below 50% for three consecutive days, plants often resort to price cuts or promotional policies to stimulate sales. However, this time, due to firm upstream raw material prices, the room for concessions is limited. A possible path is that some small and medium-sized polyester plants will cut prices first, triggering industry-wide price easing, which in turn forces upstream raw material prices to adjust downward.
Transmission Effects on Regional Industrial Clusters
The impact of this sales data is particularly direct on major chemical fiber production areas such as Zhejiang and Jiangsu. Weaving enterprises in Shaoxing, Xiaoshan, Wujiang, and Shengze are the main buyers of polyester filament yarn. Current loom capacity utilization in these areas generally ranges from 50% to 70%, with some small factories even suspending production intermittently due to insufficient orders. The sharp drop in polyester filament yarn sales will exacerbate inventory pressure and working capital difficulties for enterprises in these clusters.
For textile foreign trade enterprises in the Shengze area, the situation is more complex. On one hand, the frequency of inquiries from overseas customers for polyester fabrics increased in July, but the conversion rate remains low, mainly because customers are highly price-sensitive and prefer small-batch, high-frequency orders. On the other hand, if domestic polyester filament yarn prices ease, it will directly reduce the raw material cost of fabric exports, theoretically benefiting order acquisition. However, the problem is that the expectation of price declines itself suppresses purchasing behavior—both customers and factories are waiting for lower prices.