Crude oil prices have climbed again, driving up polyester raw material costs, but the current polyester yarn price hike is far milder in magnitude and pace than the post-Spring Festival surge. At that time, daily increases hit 500 yuan per ton, even spiking 1,500 yuan in a single day. Now, weavers remain relatively calm. The real concern is not domestic raw material volatility, but the global supply chain risks from the second closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Background
According to the International Maritime Organization's July 8 statement, hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. After a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding briefly restored passage, traffic remained far below normal. IMF's “Port Watch” data shows only 28 vessels per day passed from June 18 to July 5, versus 130-138 before the conflict. In the five days after the deal, about 18 million barrels of crude left Iranian ports; Iran claims 40 million barrels exported at a 20% premium. The U.S. says it has escorted over 800 ships transporting 400 million barrels since early May. But Asian countries only replenished limited stocks during the window, facing a new blockade.
Industry Impact
Short-term, the energy crisis benefits China's textile sector. In H1, Southeast Asian countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy saw production disruptions, diverting orders for quality and stable delivery to China. China Customs data for June confirms this: textile and apparel exports rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports grew 12.2% and 7.4% sequentially; apparel exports increased 3.2% and 21% month-on-month. H1 cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%, indicating China's role as a substitute supplier amid global supply chain turmoil.
Long-term risks are significant. The Strait closure fuels global inflation. Oil is an industrial staple; sustained shortages could disrupt economic order in many countries. China has reduced oil import dependence via new energy and coal chemicals, but most nations lack this capacity. If U.S. inflation from oil prices triggers Fed rate hikes, a global liquidity crisis may follow. China's textile sector relies heavily on foreign trade; global economic turmoil would directly suppress end demand.