On July 15, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament sample enterprises dropped to 42.3%, plummeting 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure not only falls far below the industry prosperity line but also reflects an extreme cautiousness among downstream weaving mills towards raw material procurement. When the market collectively chooses to 'wait and see' rather than 'act,' liquidity across the entire chemical fiber supply chain is rapidly tightening.
The Demand Reality Behind Production-Sales Data
According to public sales data from sample enterprises, only two companies recorded a ratio exceeding 100% on that day, while the majority were concentrated in the 20% to 40% range, with one even hitting a 0% extreme. This means over 90% of polyester filament producers shipped far less than their normal capacity, leading to passive inventory accumulation.
The 'just-in-time purchasing' pattern is a direct reflection of sluggish terminal orders. Weaving enterprises themselves have high finished product inventories and prolonged payment cycles, making them reluctant to stockpile raw materials. A 42.3% ratio implies that more than half of the day's polyester filament output went directly into inventory rather than downstream processing.
Dual Squeeze from Cost and Demand
Polyester filament prices are currently caught in a 'high cost, weak demand' dilemma. Upstream PTA and MEG costs remain elevated due to volatile crude oil prices, squeezing polyester filament producers' margins. However, downstream weaving and apparel sectors, facing weak end-consumer demand, are highly resistant to price increases, risking order losses if they raise prices.
- Cost side: PTA and MEG prices show resilience, making it difficult for polyester filament producers to lower prices to stimulate procurement without incurring losses.
- Demand side: Weaving mill operating rates are generally below 60%, with most producing only against confirmed orders and avoiding pre-stocking.
- Inventory side: Polyester filament factory inventory days have risen to nearly three weeks. If the sales ratio remains low, passive production cuts may be triggered by month-end.
This stalemate suggests that polyester filament prices will likely remain in a narrow range in the short term, with downside risk outweighing upside potential.
Ripple Effects Across Industrial Clusters
In major polyester filament producing clusters such as Shengze (Jiangsu), Xiaoshan (Zhejiang), and Changle (Fujian), weaving mills' procurement pace is directly tied to final garment orders. Mid-July is traditionally a slack season, with no improvement in replenishment demand from European and American markets. Domestic '618' promotional restocking has also ended, and new orders are mostly small-batch, quick-turnaround types that consume limited raw materials.
A procurement manager from a medium-sized weaving mill in Shengze stated, 'With grey fabrics not moving, we dare not take more filament—at most a 3-5 day supply.' This mindset is widespread across industrial clusters, further reinforcing the weak production-sales data.
Practical Recommendations
For Procurement Teams - **Lock in long-term contract prices**: During this volatile period, sign monthly or quarterly contracts with polyester filament suppliers to fix a base price, avoiding higher costs from spot purchases. - **Adopt a phased stocking strategy**: If raw material prices are judged to be near the bottom, use a 'small batches, high frequency' approach to gradually build inventory at low points rather than making one large purchase. - **Monitor substitute price spreads**: When the price gap between polyester filament and alternatives like cotton yarn or viscose staple fiber widens, evaluate the economics of formula adjustments to reduce single-material dependency.
For Foreign Trade Enterprises - **Shorten quotation validity**: Reduce quotation validity for overseas clients from the usual 7-10 days to 3-5 days, and include raw material price fluctuation clauses in contracts to protect margins from exchange rate and material cost volatility. - **Use forward exchange hedging**: With RMB exchange rate fluctuations combined with low raw material prices, lock in forward exchange rates early to stabilize export revenue expectations. - **Focus on high-value-added orders**: During the slack season, shift capacity to differentiated products such as functional fabrics or recycled polyester, avoiding price wars in conventional polyester filament fabrics and maintaining pricing power through technical barriers.
Overall, the 42.3% sales-to-production ratio is a pessimistic footnote on market expectations. Yet historical experience shows that when industry inventories accumulate to a certain level, production cuts and price clearance often follow. For procurement teams, this is a window to reassess supply chain resilience and optimize purchasing cadence.