Polyester filament prices are experiencing a new wave of volatility, but the magnitude is far less than the frenzy after the Lunar New Year. In recent days, polyester raw materials have climbed with crude oil prices, with daily increases of 50 to 100 yuan, compared to a single-day surge of 1,500 yuan during the post-holiday period. Weaving mills remain relatively calm, as the real unease stems from overseas—the second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is quietly reshaping global textile supply chains.
Event Background
The historical impact of the Strait of Hormuz blockade has left a deep imprint. During the first blockade after the Lunar New Year, Japan switched to black-and-white product packaging due to naphtha shortages, while several Southeast Asian countries reduced workdays and imposed fuel station restrictions. These events exposed the deep reliance of Asian nations on Middle Eastern crude oil.
According to data from the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, the strait saw an average of only 28 vessels per day, compared to 130-138 before the conflict—a drop of about 80%. In the five days after the agreement opened, approximately 18 million barrels of crude oil were shipped from Iranian ports, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. However, an International Maritime Organization statement on July 8 noted that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remained stranded in the Persian Gulf. Asian countries seized the opening window to replenish inventories, but the volumes were limited and insufficient to fill previous deficits, with a new blockade following immediately.
This means that the global crude supply tightness is unlikely to ease in the short term, keeping upstream cost pressure on the polyester chain.
Industry Impact
In the short term, the Strait of Hormuz blockade presents a structural advantage for China's textile industry. The energy crisis in the first half of the year disrupted production in many Southeast Asian countries, driving overseas orders seeking quality and stable delivery toward China. Data from the General Administration of Customs of China on July 14 shows that textile and apparel exports in June grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month; textile exports rose 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; apparel exports increased 3.2% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month. In the first half, cumulative textile and apparel exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4% year-on-year, with textile exports at $73 billion, up 3.5%.
The order reshoring reflects the fragility of Southeast Asian textile capacity. These countries rely heavily on Middle Eastern crude; if the blockade persists, their power supply and chemical fiber raw materials face disruption risks, further strengthening China's position as a stable supplier.
However, long-term risks cannot be ignored. The U.S. debt crisis, global inflation, and the AI bubble have left the global economy vulnerable. The strait blockade pushes up crude prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures; if the U.S. raises interest rates to curb inflation, it could trigger a global liquidity crisis. China has reduced its reliance on crude imports through new energy and coal chemicals, but most countries lack this capability. The textile industry's export orientation means it is highly dependent on global economic health, and China cannot remain immune in the event of a downturn.