Brent crude surged nearly 10% in a single day, and polyester filament yarn prices rose for consecutive working days—two events that simultaneously jolted the textile supply chain. But this time, the industry stands on different ground: higher raw material inventories, lower fabric inventories, and weak off-season demand. The same price hike signal may travel a very different path.
Background: Geopolitical Conflict Ignites Raw Materials
The military standoff between the US and Iran at the Strait of Hormuz escalated rapidly. After Iran attacked merchant ships and announced a temporary closure of the strait, the US launched five rounds of airstrikes in a week, hitting over 300 targets. President Trump briefly announced a 20% fee on strait cargo, retracting the next day, but the situation is beyond unilateral control. Iran declared the previous memorandum of understanding null and entered a state of war.
Oil markets reacted sharply. Brent crude posted its biggest single-day gain since June on the 13th, then continued to rise, breaking through $86. Polyester filament yarn prices began rising from the 8th, reversing a prolonged decline. Cost pressure from raw materials is rapidly transmitting downstream.
Industry Impact: A Mismatch of Inventories and Demand
Compared to the earlier price surge this year—when prices jumped 3,000 yuan in days—the current fundamentals have structurally shifted. Inventory data tell the story: POY factory stocks at 26.4 days, FDY at 32.5 days, DTY at 37.3 days—all about 10 days higher than post-Spring Festival levels. Fabric inventories, however, stand at just 17 days, far below the 24 days earlier this year.
This means polyester links face greater inventory pressure, while weaving mills have lower raw material procurement appetite. Crucially, demand is in its traditional off-season, with low loom utilization and minimal purchasing needs—a stark contrast to the peak "golden March and April" period.
Market sentiment has also shifted. During the earlier price surge, many mills hoarded goods, expecting further gains. But after months of experience, the industry now realizes that while raw material prices rise sharply, fabric and garment price transmission is slow and painful. Negotiations with downstream buyers often end in compromise, and old inventory is nearly impossible to reprice. As a result, the industry now prefers to hold cash rather than stock up.