In June 2026, China's textile and apparel exports reached $29.27 billion, up 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports alone hit $13.52 billion, surging 12.2%, while apparel exports rose 3.2% to $15.75 billion. This strong rebound followed a sluggish first half where cumulative exports totaled $145.96 billion, a mere 1.4% increase. However, the good news is tempered by a sharp rise in crude oil prices, with Brent climbing to $76.01 per barrel by July 10, well above the $53-63 range forecast for the year.
The cost transmission from oil to polyester filament is already in full swing. On July 14, PTA prices jumped 2.14% to 6,024.5 yuan per ton, up 25.78% year-on-year. Polyester POY reached 8,168.75 yuan per ton, a 17.64% increase. The entire chain—crude oil to PX to PTA to polyester filament—is under upward pressure, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions on Iranian oil.
Three factors drove the June export surge: first, a backlog of orders released after the US-China tariff agreement; second, early autumn-winter restocking by Western retailers; third, a strengthening upstream that laid the groundwork for downstream recovery. But the sustainability of this rebound is questionable. Once the backlog is cleared, new demand must materialize to sustain momentum.
The polyester filament industry has shifted from passive price-taking to active price-support through coordinated production cuts. Inventories are at multi-year lows, and grey fabric prices are rising, indicating a sector determined to maintain margins. Yet downstream weaving mills are struggling, with fabric inventories at 31.68 days and operating rates at just 52.85%. If end-demand falters, the chain could face a structural mismatch between rising upstream costs and sluggish downstream sales.
Looking ahead to H2 2026, the most likely scenario is a 'strong first half, stable second half' pattern. Q3 should see high polyester prices supported by seasonal demand and export orders, while Q4 will hinge on actual consumption and oil price trends. Geopolitical risks remain the wildcard—any escalation could drive costs higher, while a de-escalation could trigger inventory write-downs.