Polyester Filament Yarn Sales Rate Plummets 24.7%: Downstream Buyers' Wait-and-See Sentiment Intensifies, Chemical Fiber Market Faces Short-Term Pressure

On July 15, the average sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises dropped to 42.3%, a sharp decline of 24.7 percentage points from the previous trading day. This figure has breached the industry's psychological defense line—a ratio below 50% means more than half of the output has not been converted into actual sales, with inventories accumulating at a visible pace.

Background

Public data reveals extreme divergence among sample enterprises on that day: individual companies reported a ratio as high as 160%, while the vast majority languished between 20% and 40%, with some even recording 0%. This 'ice and fire' scenario essentially reflects that downstream buyers have fully shifted from active restocking to passive waiting.

As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber industry chain, the sales-to-production ratio of polyester filament yarn has always been a barometer of end-demand temperatures. Mid-July is traditionally a slow season, compounded by generally below-expectations orders in the downstream textile and apparel sector. Weaving enterprises' operating rates continue to decline, naturally curbing their willingness to purchase raw materials.

Industry Impact

The first direct consequence of the plummeting sales ratio is the concentration of inventory pressure on polyester factories. Industry experience suggests that if the ratio remains below 50% for more than a week, factories will have to resort to price cuts or production cuts to digest inventories. Once price reductions begin, they further reinforce the downstream 'buy on rising, not on falling' psychology, creating a vicious cycle.

For upstream suppliers of PTA and MEG, the weakness in polyester filament yarn means reduced demand support. Although PTA prices have remained relatively firm recently due to crude oil fluctuations and plant maintenance, if polyester production cuts intensify, raw material prices also face downward risks.

From a regional industrial belt perspective, weaving enterprises in major polyester filament yarn production bases like Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are generally maintaining low operating rates. Some small and medium-sized weaving factories have already entered an early summer break mode, directly reducing rigid demand for polyester filament yarn.

Practical Suggestions

For Buyers - Avoid blindly bottom-fishing at this stage; closely monitor polyester factory inventory changes and production cut plans. If factories collectively cut production, prices may rebound briefly, but the upside is limited. - Prioritize establishing small-batch, high-frequency procurement partnerships with suppliers that have higher sales ratios, as such companies tend to offer better quality and delivery guarantees. - Track crude oil and PTA futures trends; if cost-side support weakens significantly, adjust procurement price expectations downward accordingly.

For Foreign Trade Enterprises - For export order pricing, consider adopting 'floating price clauses' that link settlement to polyester filament yarn prices, to avoid profit erosion from domestic price drops. - Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam and Bangladesh have shown relatively stable import demand for polyester filament yarn recently; explore new clients to hedge against domestic demand decline risks. - Use the current window of lower domestic prices to negotiate long-term contracts with overseas customers, locking in raw material cost advantages for the next 3-6 months.