On July 17, the average sales-to-production ratio for sampled polyester filament yarn enterprises stood at just 33%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous day. To put this in perspective, during normal years this metric typically ranges between 50% and 70%. The current level is approaching an industry warning line. Even more concerning, among the 25 sampled companies, seven reported ratios of 20% or below, with one hitting zero. This is not an isolated fluctuation but a clear signal that the chemical fiber market has entered a deep wait-and-see phase.
Demand Ice Point: Decoding Market Sentiment from Sales Structure
The detailed distribution of sales data further confirms extreme fragmentation and weakness in demand. Only three of the 25 sampled enterprises achieved a 40% sales rate, while more than half were stuck in the 15%-30% low-water zone. This 'small at both ends, large in the middle' distribution suggests that downstream weaving mills are not halting purchases due to specific supplier issues but are universally adopting a cautious 'buy-as-needed, small-lot' strategy.
According to publicly available industry data, polyester filament yarn prices have been range-bound for several weeks, yet downstream grey fabric inventories remain high. Weaving mills face a dual squeeze: raw material prices are not falling, while finished product prices are hard to raise. Profit margins have been compressed to the limit. Consequently, even when upstream chemical fiber mills try to stimulate shipments through promotions or discounts, downstream players lack the incentive to stock up in bulk. This mindset is directly reflected in the persistent sales ratio below 40%.
Chain Transmission: Inventory Pressure Accumulates Upstream
The direct consequence of a low sales ratio is rapid inventory buildup at chemical fiber mills. Industry norms suggest a reasonable inventory cycle of 10-15 days for polyester filament yarn. Currently, most companies have physical inventories exceeding 20 days, with some approaching the 30-day warning line. Inventory not only ties up capital but also incurs storage costs and risks of product downgrading.
It is worth noting that this 'buyer's market' pattern is not caused by a single factor. Upstream, though raw material prices like PTA and MEG have slightly declined, their absolute levels remain relatively high in recent years, making it difficult for chemical fiber mills to effectively compress costs. Downstream, export orders for terminal apparel and home textiles experienced a phased slowdown at the end of Q2, especially a notable month-on-month decline in exports of knitted fabrics to European and American markets. Intermediate weaving and dyeing mills can only respond by reducing operating rates—the comprehensive operating rate of water-jet looms in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region has dropped from 75% in May to around 65%.
Price Outlook: No Near-Term Breakthrough
Based on current sales and inventory trends, two judgments can be made. First, polyester filament yarn prices are likely to remain weak and range-bound through late July to early August, with a possibility that some companies may cut prices slightly to alleviate cash flow pressures. Second, whether the sales ratio can recover hinges on two variables: whether upstream raw material prices can substantially decline to pass savings downstream, and whether end-user orders can pick up before the 'golden September and silver October' stocking season begins in late August.
Historically, July is a traditional off-season for the textile industry. However, the 'depth' of this year's off-season significantly exceeds that of previous years. In the same period of 2025, the average sales ratio for polyester filament yarn was still around 45%, but by mid-July 2026 it has fallen to 33%, indicating a broad contraction in market confidence and liquidity.