The second closure of the Strait of Hormuz has put the polyester supply chain on edge again. Unlike the post-Lunar New Year surge, current daily price increases for polyester filament are only 50 to 100 yuan per ton, far below the previous single-day jumps of over 1,000 yuan. Weaving mills remain cautious, but crude oil uncertainties are far from resolved.
Crude Replenishment Window Was Brief, Supply Chain Recovery Incomplete
Between June 18 and July 5, the IMF's 'Port Watch' project recorded 513 vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, an average of about 28 per day. Before the blockade, the daily average was 130 to 138 vessels. Within five days of the agreement, approximately 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports. Iran claimed exports of 40 million barrels, with prices 20% above pre-war levels. The U.S. reported escorting over 800 merchant ships since early May, transporting about 400 million barrels.
However, an International Maritime Organization statement on July 8 noted that hundreds of ships and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. This means Asian countries, despite using the brief opening window to replenish, have filled only a fraction of the inventory gap created during the blockade. The new closure will tighten crude supply once again.
Short-Term Orders Shift to China, June Export Data Confirms Trend
Customs data released on July 14 shows textile and apparel exports in June rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports grew 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month; apparel exports rose 3.2% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%.
These figures reflect order shifts from Southeast Asian countries whose energy-dependent production has been disrupted by oil shortages. For weaving and fabric mills, this means delivery reliability is translating into real orders. Whether this benefit lasts depends on the evolution of the crude crisis.
Long-Term Risks: Dual Transmission of Inflation and Liquidity
The Strait closure not only pushes up oil prices but also threatens textile trade through two channels. First, inflation transmission: crude price hikes raise global production costs, suppressing consumer demand. Second, monetary policy: if higher oil prices fuel U.S. inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates, tightening global liquidity and weakening emerging market purchasing power.
China has reduced its crude import dependence through new energy and coal chemical development, but global economic linkages mean any regional crisis can transmit through trade chains. The textile sector's high export dependence makes it vulnerable to order contraction if major export markets experience economic turbulence.