Brent crude has broken above $86, and polyester filament yarn has seen consecutive daily price increases—the sound of gunfire in the Strait of Hormuz has once again ignited tension in the textile raw material market. But unlike the "3,000 yuan jump in days" earlier this year, the market backdrop this time is fundamentally different.
Background
The conflict began when Iran attacked merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. military launched multiple large-scale airstrikes starting on the 12th, targeting over 300 sites. Iran responded by temporarily closing the strait and attacking several U.S. military bases. President Trump announced on the 13th the restoration of a naval blockade and a proposed 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait, but withdrew the decision the next day. However, the situation has spiraled out of control, with Iran declaring the previous memorandum with the U.S. invalid and entering a state of war.
As a result, Brent crude surged nearly 10% on the 13th, its biggest single-day gain since June. Polyester filament yarn has been rising since the 8th, completely reversing its previous downtrend.
Industry Impact
Compared to the rally earlier this year, the core differences now lie in inventory and demand. According to China Customs data, as of last week, POY factory inventory stood at 26.4 days, FDY at 32.5 days, and DTY at 37.3 days—all roughly 8-10 days higher than at the start of the year. Meanwhile, gray fabric inventory averaged only 17 days, well below the 24 days seen in January.
This means upstream polyester producers face greater inventory pressure, while downstream weaving mills have very low stocking intentions. The current season is traditionally weak, with loom utilization rates low and orders far below the "golden March-April" period. Market sentiment has shifted from "hoarding for higher prices" early this year to "waiting on the sidelines," as the difficulty of passing on raw material cost increases to gray fabric and finished fabrics has been painfully learned.
On the macro level, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would disrupt global energy supply chains. Many countries' crude oil inventories are already low, reducing their resilience. On one hand, production disruptions in some nations could accelerate order transfers to China; on the other, overseas demand may be further suppressed, potentially fueling inflation and triggering global financial risks.