The polyester filament market is experiencing a pronounced demand trough. According to industry public data, the average sales rate of sample enterprises on July 17 stood at just 33%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous trading day, with sluggish market transactions and buying sentiment hitting a low point. This data reflects the genuine picture of intensified upstream-downstream gaming and weak end-user demand.
Sales Data: Behind the Sluggish Numbers
Among the 24 sample enterprises surveyed, only one achieved a sales rate exceeding 50%, while as many as eight firms posted rates of 20% or below, including one with zero transactions. The majority of enterprises fell within the 30%-40% range, indicating a highly dispersed and depressed distribution. This pattern of 'low-base zero growth' suggests that even price cuts by some factories have failed to effectively stimulate downstream purchasing intent.
Historically, July is typically a low season for the textile industry, but a 33% sales rate is still significantly below the multi-year average of 45%-50% for the same period in 2025, underscoring the depth of the current demand contraction. As a core intermediate product in the chemical fiber chain, polyester filament's sales rate directly reflects the operating willingness and restocking sentiment of the weaving sector. The current data indicates that downstream weaving mills are widely adopting a 'hand-to-mouth' purchasing strategy and actively destocking.
Cost and Inventory: Dual Pressure Transmission
This sales slump is not an isolated event. While raw material prices for PTA and ethylene glycol remain relatively low, the cost pressure on polyester plants has not eased significantly—tight upstream PX supply combined with weak downstream demand has created a 'scissors gap' that continues to squeeze processing margins. Meanwhile, industry-wide inventory levels are at medium-to-high levels, with some specifications exceeding 20 days, further limiting factories' pricing power.
From a regional industrial belt perspective, operating rates in major weaving clusters such as Shengze, Changxing, and Xiaoshan are generally below 60%, with some small and medium-sized weaving mills already implementing early summer breaks or rotating shifts due to insufficient orders. This 'output reduction to support prices' behavior has transmitted upstream, directly weakening rigid demand for polyester filament. Notably, on the foreign trade front, restocking demand from European and American markets for the second half of the year has not yet materialized, while order diversion to Southeast Asia continues, adding pressure on domestic weaving enterprises' exports.
Market Outlook: Short-Term Difficulty, Mid-Term Policy Variables
In summary, the polyester filament market is unlikely to escape the 'low sales, high inventory, weak demand' dilemma in the short term. On pricing, if terminal orders fail to improve before the traditional 'Golden September and Silver October' peak season, polyester plants may deepen output cuts to support prices. However, if upstream raw material prices rebound without downstream absorption, processing margins could be further squeezed, creating a vicious cycle of 'price hikes—output cuts—further price hikes.'
On the policy front, recent domestic consumption stimulus measures (such as home appliance trade-ins and textile/apparel consumption subsidies) are expected to gradually transmit to the textile chain in the second half of the year, but actual effects will have a time lag. Chemical fiber companies should closely monitor the destocking pace of end-use consumer goods and changes in weaving sector operating rates.