The second closure of the Strait of Hormuz is dragging the global textile industry into a new energy game. Over the past week, polyester filament prices have risen modestly by 50 to 100 yuan per ton daily, far slower than the post-Spring Festival surge of 500 to 1,000 yuan per day. Weaving mill owners have shifted from panic to caution—not because they are unafraid, but because they are learning to navigate volatility.
Background
Crude oil is the starting point of the polyester chain. The blockade directly pushes up oil prices, which then transmit to PTA and MEG, finally reflecting in filament quotes. Unlike the first closure earlier this year, this round features smaller but more persistent increases, compounded by already low global crude inventories.
According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, from June 18 to July 5, an average of only 28 vessels passed through the strait daily, compared to 130-138 before the conflict. During the brief window after the first closure, about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iran, with Iran claiming exports of 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The U.S. reported escorting over 800 commercial vessels carrying about 400 million barrels since early May. However, the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of ships and approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. These figures indicate that Asian countries have only partially replenished their inventories, leaving a significant gap.
Industry Impact
In the short term, this energy crisis has created a wave of order reshoring for China's textile sector. Customs data released on July 14 shows that textile and apparel exports in June rose 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month. Textile exports alone grew 12.2% year-on-year and 7.4% month-on-month, while apparel exports increased 3.2% and 21% respectively. First-half cumulative exports reached $145.96 billion, up 1.4%. This growth is partly driven by Southeast Asian countries, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, seeing their production disrupted, leading overseas buyers to shift orders to China.
But long-term risks are significant. Oil is the bedrock of modern industry. If the blockade persists, it will not only fuel global inflation but also destabilize economies of many nations. China has reduced its reliance on imported crude through new energy and coal chemical development, but most countries lack this capability. If the U.S. is forced to raise interest rates due to oil-driven inflation, it could trigger a global liquidity crisis, hitting consumption demand.
China's textile industry has a high dependence on foreign trade. Any global economic turbulence will inevitably impact orders. With current overcapacity, companies must enhance product quality and supply chain efficiency to build resilience.