Crude oil prices have breached $86 a barrel, and the shadow of a Strait of Hormuz blockade is once again roiling the global textile raw materials market. Polyester filament yarn, after starting its price hike on the 8th, has risen for several consecutive working days, reversing its previous downtrend. However, compared to the early-year surge that saw prices jump 3,000 yuan in days, the current market backdrop is fundamentally different—inventory structures, demand rhythms, and industry sentiment have all shifted.
Inventory Mismatch and Demand Gap
Current polyester POY factory inventory stands at 26.4 days, FDY at 32.5 days, and DTY at 37.3 days—about 8, 7, and 10 days higher respectively than after the Spring Festival holiday. Meanwhile, gray fabric inventory at the weaving end has dropped from 24 days at the start of the year to 17 days. The shift of inventory from downstream to upstream means that price pressure from raw materials struggles to be released through the weaving sector.
Demand is equally weak. Early this year, the market was entering the peak "golden March and silver April" season, with textile firms holding substantial orders and rigid demand for raw materials. Currently, it is the traditional off-season, loom utilization rates are low, and purchasing willingness has declined significantly. Even with raw material price hikes, it is difficult to replicate the collective "buy on the rise" behavior seen earlier.
Sentiment Shift: From Hoarding to Waiting
During the early-year price surge, many textile firms chose to hoard inventory, expecting gray fabric prices to rise. But half a year of market reality has shown that passing on raw material price increases to fabric and finished goods is extremely difficult—downstream buyers are price-sensitive, negotiations often end in compromise, and raising prices on old inventory is nearly impossible.
This harsh lesson has reshaped industry cognition. Most firms now avoid stockpiling and prefer to hold cash and wait. Market sentiment has switched from "chasing price rises" to "risk aversion," which directly weakens the pull effect of raw material price hikes on downstream procurement.
Macro Risks and Foreign Trade Implications
Zooming out, this crisis also overlays a fragile energy supply-demand balance. Many countries have depleted their crude oil inventories and have only partially replenished, reducing their shock-absorption capacity. If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, it could trigger more severe chain reactions: on one hand, production disruptions in some countries may accelerate order transfers to China, offering short-term gains for textile exports; on the other hand, overseas demand could be further suppressed, potentially fueling inflation and triggering financial risks.
For textile foreign trade firms, uncertainty around exchange rates, shipping costs, and energy prices is rising simultaneously. The probability of black swan events increases exponentially with the duration of the blockade. Companies should prepare risk contingency plans in advance to avoid being caught off guard by volatile raw material prices.