Polyester Filament Sales Rate Plunges to 33%, Supply-Demand Tensions Escalate in Chemical Fiber Market

On July 17, the average sales rate of polyester filament sample enterprises was merely 33%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous day. This figure is not an anomaly but a signal of weakening demand in the chemical fiber market. End-user buying sentiment remains sluggish, market trading is subdued, and sales are flat, leaving the entire chain in a stalemate.

Data Signals Behind the Numbers

A 33% sales rate means over 60% of production capacity failed to convert into actual transactions. The distribution among sample enterprises is highly uneven: some firms reported 0%, while the highest reached only 60%. This divergence indicates significant differences in order acquisition capabilities and customer loyalty across companies. More concerning, consecutive days of low sales rates are pushing up industry inventories, directly limiting future price flexibility.

Root Causes of Supply-Demand Imbalance

The core contradiction lies in the mismatch between supply and demand. On the supply side, upstream chemical fiber capacity continues to expand, keeping polyester filament supply at elevated levels. On the demand side, downstream weaving and garment enterprises, affected by weak final consumption, have adopted conservative procurement strategies—buying on a need-to-order basis to avoid large inventories. This 'buyer's market' dynamic weakens chemical fiber companies' pricing power and intensifies price competition.

Ripple Effects Across Industrial Clusters

Weaving operation rates in clusters like Keqiao and Shengze have shown signs of decline. Downstream firms report shorter order cycles and smaller order quantities, and their cautious raw material procurement has directly transmitted to the chemical fiber end. If this trend persists, inventory pressure on chemical fiber companies will cascade upstream to polyester chips, creating a full-chain stagnation risk.

Strategic Analysis for Enterprises

Facing persistently low sales rates, chemical fiber companies need to adjust from two dimensions: first, optimize product mix by increasing the share of differentiated, high-value-added products to avoid homogeneous competition; second, enhance production-sales coordination by flexibly adjusting operating rates based on orders to avoid overproduction that exacerbates inventory. For downstream buyers, the current low-price window may present a phased restocking opportunity, but careful risk assessment is needed.

Practical Recommendations

For Buyers - Closely monitor polyester filament inventory changes. If inventory rises for two consecutive weeks, consider small-batch purchases to lock in low prices. - Establish short-term flexible procurement agreements with suppliers to avoid price risks from long-term fixed-price contracts. - Prioritize suppliers with stable sales rates and healthy cash flows to reduce supply disruption risks.

For Export Enterprises - Leverage current low raw material prices to stock up for H2 orders in advance, securing cost advantages. - Monitor changes in demand for polyester filament in Southeast Asian markets to explore export substitution opportunities. - Strengthen foreign exchange risk management to prevent RMB fluctuations from eroding profit margins.