Crude oil prices have taken off again, and polyester raw materials follow suit. But this time, weaving mill owners are far calmer than at the beginning of the year.
Customs data released on July 14 shows textile and apparel exports grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month in June, with textile exports up 12.2%. This data creates a subtle contrast with the strait situation—external risks intensify while orders flow back.
Fact Breakdown: Inventory Gap and Blockade Rhythm
The second blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening is the direct trigger for this price surge. According to the IMF's 'Port Watch' project, daily vessel passages averaged only 28 between June 18 and July 5, compared to 130-138 before the conflict. Capacity recovery is less than 30%.
In the five days after the agreement, about 18 million barrels of crude were shipped from Iranian ports. Iran claims to have exported 40 million barrels at a 20% premium over pre-war prices. The US military has escorted over 800 merchant ships since early May, transporting about 400 million barrels. But the International Maritime Organization stated on July 8 that hundreds of vessels and about 6,000 seafarers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
Asian countries seized the window to replenish oil, but the amount was limited and far from filling the previous gap. A new blockade followed immediately.
Industry Impact: Order Backflow and Long-Term Concerns
In the short term, the energy crisis is a positive for China's textile industry. Many Southeast Asian countries, heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy, saw production disrupted, driving orders for quality and reliable delivery to China. June export data confirms this: textile and apparel exports grew 7.2% year-on-year and 14.3% month-on-month.
But long-term risks cannot be ignored. The US debt crisis, global inflation, and the AI bubble make the world economy fragile. The strait blockade exacerbates inflation, and more critically, if oil becomes truly scarce, basic economic order in many countries may collapse. China has reduced its crude import dependence through new energy and coal chemicals, but most countries lack this foundation. If the US raises interest rates due to oil-driven inflation, a global liquidity crisis will escalate. China's textile industry relies heavily on foreign trade, so a global economic shock would be hard to escape.
Price Hike Rhythm: From Sharp to Gradual
Compared to the post-Spring Festival wave, this round's magnitude and pace are markedly different. Earlier this year, polyester filament rose 500 yuan/ton one day and another 1,000 the next, with a single-day peak of 1,500 yuan/ton. This time, increases are slower, and mill owners are generally more composed.
This difference in sentiment reflects a shift in risk expectations. After the sharp surge earlier, downstream inventory management has become more cautious, procurement more dispersed, and profit margins have been compressed, reducing sensitivity to price increases.