On July 17, the average sales-to-output ratio of polyester filament yarn sample enterprises was only 33%, a slight drop of 0.1 percentage point from the previous trading day. This figure means that more than two-thirds of the day's production failed to convert into actual sales, signaling accumulating inventory pressure.
Signals Behind the Data
The 33% sales rate is not an isolated event. Looking at the specific data from 24 sample enterprises, the distribution is highly fragmented: the lowest was 0% and the highest 60%, but most fell within the 15%-40% range. Over half of the enterprises had ratios below 30%, indicating this is not a fluctuation of individual companies but a sector-wide demand weakness.
More notably, this data emerged against a backdrop where polyester filament yarn prices are already at relatively low levels. Conventional logic would suggest that low prices should stimulate downstream purchasing, but the opposite occurred—buyer sentiment was weak and market transactions were sluggish. This implies that downstream weaving mills are not only dissatisfied with current prices but also hold a bearish outlook on future price trends, preferring to maintain low inventories rather than restock.
Upstream-Downstream Transmission: How Weaving Mill Caution Affects Chemical Fiber Plants
The low sales rate directly reflects the operating willingness and order status of weaving mills. Currently, demand in the textile end-market—including apparel and home textiles—is recovering slower than expected, leading to limited new orders for weaving mills. With their own finished product inventories slow to clear, these mills naturally lack urgency in purchasing raw materials.
This cautious sentiment transmits upstream, forming a classic negative feedback loop: weak end demand → weaving mills reduce purchases → chemical fiber plants see lower sales rates → inventories rise → chemical fiber plants may be forced to cut prices to destock → weaving mills expect further price declines → further delay purchases.
For chemical fiber companies, the core issue is not the absolute price level but the lack of substantive demand improvement. If the sales rate continues to hover in the 30%-40% range, some small and medium-sized chemical fiber plants may face cash flow pressures, and there is a risk of industry operating rates being reduced.
Price Expectations and Market Game
Historically, when polyester filament yarn sales rates persistently fall below 50%, market prices tend to come under pressure. However, this round is different: upstream raw materials like PTA and ethylene glycol are also fluctuating, leaving chemical fiber plants with little room to cut prices without sacrificing margins. This creates a dilemma between destocking and maintaining profitability.
For downstream buyers, the current moment is not an absolute "bottom" because demand has yet to stabilize. However, for weaving mills with rigid restocking needs, excessive waiting could also miss a temporary low-price window. The market's breakthrough may come from two directions: a concentrated release of end orders, or a significant change in upstream raw material costs.